Posts
The AI capex that crushed Microsoft's FCF is the exact reason it's mispriced the market made the identical judge on Amazon for two decades. 39x on FCF is it really expensive?
The market calling Microsoft at 39x FCF expensive reminds me of Amazon. For two decades Amazon looked expensive on FCF while it poured money into data centers and logistics. The same overreaction looks like it is hitting Microsoft now: its worst month since 2000, already down two time around 34% …
Thinking about selling PANW and Fortnite question
FORTINET\*\*\*\* autocorrect omg So this is for my personal brokerage, I have separate retirement accounts. I own 10 stocks of PANW and 10 of Fortinet. I am current up 70% for PANW (cost basis $183) and 62 for fortinet ($97). I only started investing about 2.5 years ago. These were …
AIRT eps>stock price
Huge opportunity to get in on a stock so cheap it’s hard to find historical comparison. Do some work here. They just posted a one time $111.2M bargain purchase accounting gain! AIRT is a portfolio of airline related businesses. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/353184/000035318426000056/pressreleaseairtfy26.htm Short interest is 16,574 shares and the company trades very …
Deep Dive: Why Wall Street’s HBM4 Models for Micron/SK Hynix vs. Samsung are Structurally Broken (A Multiplicative SCM Risk Model)
**TL;DR (Too Long; Didn't Read)** **The Core Premise:** Wall Street models HBM4/HBM5 market share using independent, additive yields. Physical 3D integration dictates that supply chain risks are **multiplicative, not additive**. **The Alliance Bottleneck:** The TSMC-Hynix/Micron alliance faces cross-border logistical latency (3-4 weeks TAT troubleshooting) and heterogeneous material warpage. Crucially, they …
Accenture at 7x FCF — the cheapest quality name in IT services, or a franchise whose unit of sale is being automated?
**Quick background**: Accenture (NYSE: ACN) is the largest IT-services and consulting firm in the world — \~780,000 people, roughly half strategic consulting and half multi-year managed services, capital-light, ROIC near 20%, net cash on the balance sheet. After a steep de-rating it trades around $129 (≈$79B market cap, as of …
Last week I published a bear case DCF on Comcast with a "dream scenario" of an NBCUniversal spinoff at $55-75 per share. This morning they announced it. Stock is up 20% premarket. Here's the original math.
Last week I ran a bear case DCF on Comcast using normalized FCF of $16B, assumed 3% annual decline for 12 straight years, 10% discount rate, and explicitly stripped $89B in net debt from the terminal value. Bear case fair value: $30-38 per share against a $22 price. At the …
Thoughts on Georg Fischer AG (Ticker on SWX: GF)
I just found this company in Switzerland that does look quite good for one the sectors I'm bullish on long term (Water/Fluids/Chemical processes). I don't really have an expertise on analyzing deeply, but I'd like to ask for your opinions. Good growth, relative healthy debt-wise and good outlook with datacenter …
Is SAP undervalued?
I recently valued SAP using a 10-year DCF. SAP traded at around $155 when I completed the valuation and my base-case DCF gives an intrinsic value of roughly $260 per ADR, implying a 40.4% margin of safety (my cut-off for deeply undervalued is >40%). The scenario range is: \- Bear …
Bachem Holding AG ($BANB) a Swiss Biotech comp for a pick-and-shovel GLP-1 play
For a quick refresher, GLP-1s are gut-hormone mimics that regulate blood sugar and signal metabolic fullness to the brain. They are used to treat Diabetes type 2 and obesity. GLP-1 is the active peptide engine behind massive drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy. Global demand is absolutely skyrocketing because they are …
My AI infra + memory watchlist: NBIS, CRWV, IREN, KEEL, MU, and Sandisk — what’s your valuation take?
I’ve been following a few names in the AI infrastructure and memory space, and I’m trying to separate real value from pure momentum. My current watchlist is NBIS, CoreWeave, IREN, KEEL, Micron, and Sandisk. What I’m seeing: • NBIS looks like the strongest strategic AI-infra story, especially after Nvidia’s backing, …