Posts
Game of Thrones in AGI Infrastructure: Why AMD (NASDAQ: AMD) is structurally undervalued for the AI Inference Boom vs. Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA)
Hi everyone, I want to share a structural investment thesis on why AMD is positioned to capture a massive share of the AI inference market from Nvidia, and why the market is currently mispricing AMD's system-level cost advantages. **The Core Thesis:** The AI market is shifting from "training" (compute-bound) to …
Got sick of paywalled/expired earnings calls, so I built a free player you can actually listen to
For years my earnings call routine was track down the IR webcast (replays sometimes expired by the time I get to it), or pay Seeking Alpha for a transcript I then read top to bottom. Got sick of it and built my own thing and it's free. You pick a …
IBM's 25% one-day crash: the mechanism (customers front-running memory prices out of a fixed IT budget) matters more than the headline miss)
IBM had its worst single-day drop ever on Tuesday — down \~25.2%, from $290.23 to $217.07. A bigger one-day percentage loss than Black Monday 1987. About $69B of market cap gone in a session (WSJ). What's unusual is why, and I think the mechanism is more interesting to argue about …
ORCL: The Best Stock to Buy Today
Oracle, in my opinion, is the greatest buy in today's market. Let's discuss. **Valuation:** PE: 20.8-22x FWD PE: 15.5-16.5x MKT Cap: \~368B Price/Sales: \~5.6 Net Debt: $95-105B In the context of Oracle, the "valuation" doesn't tell the story on it's own. Instead, let's dive deeper into what is going on. …
Playboy (PLBY) - A turnaround play on one of the most iconic brands
A few quick things: 1. Playboy (PLBY) is one of my largest holdings. 2. I prefer rough approximations on value instead of false precision 3. This is my investment thesis, but I had Claude help me condense and structure it for Reddit # Intro Playboy was a bad business for …
Blue owl corp
Been looking at Blue Owl (OWL) recently after the selloff. What caught my attention is the dividend yield getting close to 9%, which seems pretty attractive if it's sustainable. The business still appears to be growing assets under management and private credit remains a big market. Does anyone here think …
New academic study on long term investing
I am going to cut and paste the abstract summary below and then turn it into English: Abstract: I study outcomes for a variety of "do-nothing" portfolios constructed from constituents of the S&P 500 index, from 1971 to 2025. These portfolios maintain their positions even for those stocks that exit …
iScream Media (KOSDAQ: 461300) — 4x earnings, 31% margins, ~10% dividend, but 91% of market cap sits in cash/securities. DD
Been digging through Korean micro-caps on DART and found one that made me re-check my numbers. Sharing the core thesis here. **The business.** iScream Media runs *iScream S*, the daily software \~93% of Korea's primary-school teachers use to run their classrooms — lesson slides, worksheets, a 20-year library of 6.5m …
Citi, Goldman and Wells Fargo Results by the Numbers
Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Wells Fargo all reported second-quarter earnings above expectations, but the results came from different parts of their businesses. * **Citigroup:** EPS was $3.15 versus $2.74 expected. Revenue rose 14% to $24.8 billion, while net income increased 45% to $5.8 billion. Banking revenue climbed 34%, investment banking …
My Thesis on Sezzle
Hi I believe the market has not understood $SEZL. There are 5 reasons I do not agree with the consensus. **Reason #1: Actual Quality of Earnings is an issue!** Total Revenue was $135.5m. Consumer-paid fees were 45% of revenue: consumer fees inside transaction income ($38.1m, 28.1%) + late payment fees …