Posts
Google looks cheap at 27x earnings, but a DCF analysis suggests it is overvalued
Last year I posted a breakdown in this sub arguing Microsoft was overvalued at $490 because of its [capex spend](https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1p9ks0t/understanding_michael_burrys_nvidia_short_the/). But that thesis was never really about Microsoft - it applies to every hyperscaler pouring money into AI. Last week I updated my [MSFT valuation ](https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1uio0by/six_months_ago_we_called_microsoft_overvalued_at/)and applied the same model …
Does Adobe really need to "win AI" to be a great investment?
I've been thinking about Adobe's investment thesis, and it feels like the market has reduced the entire company to one question: "Will Adobe win AI?" But is that really the right question? What if Adobe doesn't become the #1 AI company, yet still creates tremendous shareholder value over the next …
Proxy statements
Hey everyone Just wanted to ask, whats the benefit of reading a proxy statement of a company?
SpaceX has borrow going into initial lockup expirations and the rates are surprisingly cheap.
The maintenance margin is high so this cannot be levered, but shares of Space X are remarkably cheap to borrow in sizes that dwarf the majority of retail account sizes. I was surprised to see the cost to borrow shares on IBKR wasn't above 1%. I doubt SpaceX is going …
Does advice from Substack have value?
Does anyone here follow the “gurus” on Substack selling advice for >$1000 per year? I wonder if they truly have skill of if their salesmanship is stronger than the stock analysis.
New To Value Investing/The Tech Sector
I’m pretty new to value investing and am just getting started learning about it (looking into Buffett and how he got rich with his investment choices). I’m specifically interested in the tech sector, and the way it’s heading towards right now, like Elon’s crazy space ventures, and the growing use …
PayPal's Valuation Is Absurd (NASDAQ:PYPL)
Is it time to start loading? The article highlights record-high active accounts and payment volume, as well as 7.2% YoY growth. Currently the stock has a forward PE of 8.54.
The Parallel Universe of POET and Micron/Hynix: Everything, Everywhere All at Once – The Graveyards of Engineers
**TL;DR (Executive Summary)** **1. The Physics Problem (Why HBM4 is a Nightmare):** Wall Street is overly optimistic, but the engineering reality is brutal. Stacking 14 to 16 layers of memory chips creates extreme heat. During manufacturing, temperatures reach 260°C, warping the silicon far past acceptable boundaries. This creates tiny micro-cracks …
How you are all preserving capital?
I feel like the stock market is overvalued right now, and the risk/reward isn't there for me personally. Most companies are experimenting with and overspending on AI without any clear ROI yet. The same logic applies to chip and memory stocks, prices are up only because of huge demand driven …
Miner Quick Screener Sheet
[https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1\_9J1v-7NRuYSMMuVXEyB8R7zTJCoJK4J/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=114907155294514129066&rtpof=true&sd=true](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_9J1v-7NRuYSMMuVXEyB8R7zTJCoJK4J/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=114907155294514129066&rtpof=true&sd=true) The tool is extremely simple, you input: Total shares, cash and equivalents, gross debt. Then the production forecast, price of gold, their average AISC and current multiple (Adjust the currency conversion if needed). The sheet then builds a few cascade tables based of those numbers and haircut derivatives, and …