Posts
GESHIP: P/E of 6.9x — A Valuation Anomaly in Marine Shipping
# GESHIP: P/E of 6.9x — A Valuation Anomaly in Marine Shipping > # Why This Stock Deserves Your Research Attention The Great Eastern Shipping Company Limited (GESHIP) is India's largest private-sector shipping company, operating in the marine shipping industry. Its fleet includes tankers and dry bulk carriers, serving global …
On Portfolio Construction and its Capital Allocation Conundrum
MU Structural change
SemiAnalysis projects that cumulative AI IT and datacenter capital expenditure from 2024 to 2029 will reach approximately $11.1 trillion (Save this). Annual capex is expected to exceed $2 trillion by 2028, growing almost every single year in the forecast window with no sign of deceleration.. SemiAnalysis projects outstanding AI-related debt …
Is Glanbia PLC the Sandisk of GLP-1/Wegovy?
The protein powder that I used to buy went from $60 to $80, then yesterday, it's at $101. So I did a quick research and found that the demand for whey protein has gotten extremely high because of glp-1. Food companies are jumping in the fad by buying protein to …
Memory revenue is only up ~20-40%, but the memory makers' profits jumped an order of magnitude. What's actually driving the gap?
Trying to get my head around the memory cycle and something isn't adding up for me. Total DRAM+NAND revenue went from \~$170B in 2024 to \~$200B in 2025, and maybe \~$290B in 2026. So call it up 20% then 40%. Solid, but not insane. Meanwhile Micron's gross margin went from …
Most toxic monopoly I've seen
Autotrader in the UK (AUTO) is hilarious, they're such a monopoly their customers are trying to revolt but can't. Been searching for UK monopolies for my substack and find this vehicle selling platform. 63% margin, 51% ROIC and they convert literally 100% of their free cash flow (capex is under …
AAPL: I do not fully trust clean mega-cap reactions anymore
AAPL used to be one of the names where I trusted the first clean reaction more than I should have. Big liquid stock. Real buyers. Less nonsense than high-beta names. That was the story I told myself, and it made me lazy. The trade that changed my view was not …
How to frame the right problem
I was inspired by Charlie Munger's inversion approach to problem solving to write this article about reframing the problem to solve problems more easily
When the bull case is 8x the bear case, there's no 'fair value' left to anchor to. Morgan Stanley's SpaceX initiation.
Morgan Stanley initiated SpaceX at $300. Bear case $75, bull case $600. Same analyst, same day, an 8x spread! I'd say its this wide because...One part of SpaceX is a real business you can model (Starlink, launch contracts), and the other is pure optionality/ideas (Starship economics, satellite and AI buildout) …
As a Value Investor, Do You Ever Pay a Premium for Good Businesses?
If so, how much? Explain/discuss/debate Examples of where you paid up?