Posts
What Happens When AI Hardware Capex Cools Down?
Breaking down earning growth using Gemini and an example. The Buyers (Hyperscalers like Microsoft, Google, Meta). What they do: They buy $10,000 stuff and accounting rules let them split that cost up across 5 years as a $2,000-a-year expense (Depreciation). They spend massive cash upfront, but their short-term profit reports …
$CMG is down 12% since their outbreak of salmonella after a strong earnings report. Are they now a great buy?
lets look at the data from the filings like the q1 2026 report and the 2025 10-k total revenue for q1 2026 hit 3.1 billion dollars which is up 7.4 percent compared to last year and comparable restaurant sales ticked up 0.5 percent with transactions actually growing 0.6 percent annual …
Counter theory to the SaaSpocolpyse
The narrative has been that SaaS stocks are undervalued because of AI fears, but a more reasonable explanation is that the momentum is just elsewhere right now. The returns are just so impressive in AI related companies that the market can't resist. This a relevant distinction because it means that …
Which value funds do you follow, and why?
Hello everyone, I'm trying to find some of the best value-focused funds and investment managers to follow. I typically follow Himalaya Capital, Gotham Asset Management, and of course Berkshire Hathaway. I'm also a big fan of Mohnish Pabrai. I would have liked to invest in Reysas Tasimacilik ve Lojistik Ticaret …
Warren Buffett's $20 Billion Blunder | The Dexter Shoe Disaster
Video in a new series Im doing going over Buffett's biggest investment mistakes and what we can learn from them. Starting with the one he calls his biggest mistake, buying a shoe manufacturer for 1.6% of Berkshire's equity. Why he thought it was a good idea in the first place, …
EPAM reports another bad quarter results, negative FCF and reduced assets
AI keeps deteriorating consulting and custom engineering services. Meager revenue from AI services makes this stock overvalued in combination with another negative FCF quarter. The theory that AI eats consulting is now in steady state. what was the response? \> Heavy unnecessary buybacks, stock based compensation with failing knife RSU …
What is your Circle of Competence?
Hey guys i'm trying to find my own circle of competence and would like some examples!
The Next Crash
So thankfully, I'm not stupid enough to think I can predict the next crash. But I did want to be ready. And I wanted more than just a wishlist of stocks; when the time comes a list of businesses won't help me decide which to pick. So I went through …
FISV being sold into the ground, priced at 2015 levels.
Trailing PE of 9, down from its highs of 250 a share earlier this year / end of last year. I picked up some shares at 47$, anyone else seeing this as a value opportunity? Even if it isn't going back to 250, how much lower could it possibly go?