Posts
NICE grew AI revenue 52% and trades at 11x cash flow, ~49% below my estimate of intrinsic value
NICE (NICE) reported a beat in early August and the stock dropped 7%. AI ARR is up 52% to $362M, backlog is growing 72%, and management is buying back stock aggressively. The market still prices the whole thing at around 11x cash flow. I think that's wrong, and here's the …
How are you calculating depreciation of AI capex /data centre assets ?
I am fairly new to investing (3–4 years). Most of my portfolio has consisted of semiconductor and Mag7 stocks, but recently, I have started to scrutinize the balance sheets of these companies. One company that caught my attention is Meta. The business model is shifting from an asset light software …
Weekly Stock Ideas Megathread: Week of August 10, 2026
What stocks are on your radar this week? What's undervalued? What's overvalued? This is the place for your quick stock pitches or to ask what everyone else is looking at. *This discussion post is lightly moderated. We suggest checking other users' posting/commenting history before following advice or stock recommendations.* *New …
18 Investment write-ups to look at
Fresh batch of company write-ups from Substack authors, all published within the last week. Not my work - sourced from Giles Capital's weekly compilation: [https://gilescapital.substack.com/](https://gilescapital.substack.com/) # Americas **Long Term Pick** on [**Microsoft Corporation**](https://longtermpick.com/p/microsoft-analysis-2026) (🇺🇸 MSFT US - US$3.4tn) Azure crossed $100B in annual revenue this quarter, growing 43%, with $678B …
Daido Signal $6743
Daido Signal ($6743) might repurchase 13% of its market cap today. I wrote up 6743 in April of last year; the stock price was ¥510. My main (and maybe only) doubt was whether management would keep increasing shareholder returns. Since they more than doubled the dividend and now are buying …
My scanner ranks 1,896 US stocks and paper-trades its own picks in public. Current top 10 undervalued (Aug 09)
I built a scanner that scores about 1,896 US-listed companies to find undervalued opportunities. This week, my checks filtered out 22 names with untrustworthy numbers. I have compiled my current top-10 list, my methodology, and my track record of open and closed positions. |\#|Ticker|Company|Price|Upside to fair value|Off 52-wk high| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| …
DCF Nitpicking, My Beef With Terminal Growth Rates
I have been doing research for a potential youtube video on DCFs. And while doing a deep dive into DCF math and logic I came back to a common belief that intuitively felt wrong to me and now I am much more confident is wrong. Limiting terminal growth rate to …
Are you a good stock picker?
A few days ago, I posed the question to this group, asking about benchmarking. I think we collectively pretty much all compare our performance against the S&P 500...which is a good benchmark as it's an easy alternative to portfolio construction. But I think ***there's a better way to judge investing …
MTCH: a declining cash cow still priced for a growth asset
I published a bearish valuation thesis on Match Group at approximately $37/share, with an $8–11 target over 24–36 months. The core question is whether Hinge deserves to keep Match Group trading at a substantial premium to distressed dating-app comps while the rest of the portfolio contracts. A few numbers: Match …