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True FCF yield vs earnings yield gap widened 1.4% in 2026 as CapEx and SBC ballooned across the S&P 500. Combined with the -1.11% earnings-to-treasury spread, the real equity risk premium looks like it's arou -2.5%. Historical comparisons to 1987, 1992, 2000, 2008.
Standard equity risk premium analysis compares the S&P 500 earnings yield (inverse of CAPE or forward P/E) against the 10-year treasury yield. That comparison is useful but it uses GAAP net income as the numerator, which includes items that don't represent cash available to shareholders. True FCF yield substitutes operating …
Watches of Switzerland: Rolex, Market Leader, Growth Runway (WOSG.L)
Watches of Switzerland (WOSG) is a retailer and partner to Rolex and other watch brands. Most of the company’s value lies in its relationship with Rolex, which only sells through authorized retailers like WOSG. The company benefits from Rolex waiting lists that effectively mean inventory is pre-sold, there is no …
Ranking Constellation, Topicus & Lumine
China DUV Risks For ASML
Thinking about AI infrastructure returns with primary data. Does it look like Charlie Munger's example of investing in a new textile loom?
Some interesting data points that poke some holes in the AI trade thesis. Microsoft and Amazon had stellar quarters, but a lot of that was based on cloud compute - is that really consumers and businesses buying their end-use AI tools, or is it still part of the infrastructure buildout? …
Waiter or Owner
Q2 2026 Letters and Reports
This is an attempt to recreate the posts that got me coming to this reddit in the first place. I would love if Beren came back again! Please forgive any typos/formatting issues as this is my first time posting on Reddit (I've previously just stalked it - this chain in …
How the multiple imposes fundamental questions
AI Bears Have the Right Numbers and the Wrong Names
Application Software Earnings Preview: The Setup Into August
[https://alphaseeker84.substack.com/p/application-software-earnings-preview](https://alphaseeker84.substack.com/p/application-software-earnings-preview)