Posts
For those who have the time
This is a very, very granular analysis on Reddit's advertising business that I wrote up on. RDDT is currently blowing up on X, and the sentiment seems quite interesting. Retail is very bullish, assuming that the 20% drop on earnings was overblown, and that stagnant DAU growth isn't as big …
Relx Plc
Which AI Buildouts Actually Earn Their Cost of Capital
Meta: Compute Is the Heart of the Business
True FCF yield vs earnings yield gap widened 1.4% in 2026 as CapEx and SBC ballooned across the S&P 500. Combined with the -1.11% earnings-to-treasury spread, the real equity risk premium looks like it's arou -2.5%. Historical comparisons to 1987, 1992, 2000, 2008.
Standard equity risk premium analysis compares the S&P 500 earnings yield (inverse of CAPE or forward P/E) against the 10-year treasury yield. That comparison is useful but it uses GAAP net income as the numerator, which includes items that don't represent cash available to shareholders. True FCF yield substitutes operating …
Watches of Switzerland: Rolex, Market Leader, Growth Runway (WOSG.L)
Watches of Switzerland (WOSG) is a retailer and partner to Rolex and other watch brands. Most of the company’s value lies in its relationship with Rolex, which only sells through authorized retailers like WOSG. The company benefits from Rolex waiting lists that effectively mean inventory is pre-sold, there is no …
Ranking Constellation, Topicus & Lumine
China DUV Risks For ASML
Thinking about AI infrastructure returns with primary data. Does it look like Charlie Munger's example of investing in a new textile loom?
Some interesting data points that poke some holes in the AI trade thesis. Microsoft and Amazon had stellar quarters, but a lot of that was based on cloud compute - is that really consumers and businesses buying their end-use AI tools, or is it still part of the infrastructure buildout? …