Posts
Genuine question, can we see a quick recovery under certain circumstances?
These tariffs (quite idiotic) are predicted to stunt US company growth and obviously caused a quick crash in the market. Because most of these companies have strong fundamentals, could we see a quick recovery if deals actually are made with other countries to (hopefully) undo “liberation day”? While I agree …
if the tarrifs are a success......
then manufacturing facilities will be constructed in USA. im keeping a positive mindset, there might be some opportunities. you think Jacobs Solutions & Rockwell Automation would boom large? or who you got?
Which was crazier — the 2025 tariff war or the 2020 COVID crash?
I wasn’t really in the markets back in 2020 during the whole COVID crash, but this 2025 tariff war situation feels absolutely insane. The market’s been swinging like crazy — up 4%, down 2% the next half hour — all because of some tweets. For those of you who were …
Don't block out contrarian views and especially hold with skepticism the echo chambers.
Last month, a FIRE post was placed into my feed and so many there were saying tariffs were priced in and not to fear. It was evident that were would be a big correction. Stocks are always also peaking when there is a correction looming. I did not listen to …
Interesting times
It appears to be getting more emotional with the sudden swings in market sentiment. This is an environment where the cases for both bullish and bearish conditions are not attached to reality. Regardless if tariffs disappear tomorrow, they can reappear the next. I’ll play the long game and let the …
Why is Trump not considering the money US service companies make in his calculations?
Im just trying to understand, the US economy is largely service oriented and the biggest firms in the world i.e. Google, FB, etc are making huge amounts of money abroad while often paying little to no tax (especially in the EU, their biggest market outside the US). Im just wondering …
Investments in case of US isolation/collapse.
Not my base case, but wondering what stocks/investments would benefit if EU and China decide to work closer together, isolating the US. Would all global equities just be repriced lower? Would certain countries/industries benefit more, on a relative basis? Would the dollar collapse? Finally, if tariffs lead to a significant …
Manufactured Crisis
This may be mere speculation, but while the housing industry is artificially inflated, much like the 2007-2008 crisis, and will eventually crash, this crisis is entirely avoidable, and it's my personal opinion this downturn was planned by Donald Trump. Trump plays dumb a lot, but it's simply to hide malicious …
Which would be the first macro-economic indicator that will concretely show the damage done by the tariffs?
So far I feel people are just theorizing how much the market would suffer from these tariffs. Most of them are predicting a 2% decline in GDP and around 8% to 10% decline in the average EPS of S&P 500 companies. A lot of these analysts I think set the …
What is everyone buying that’s on sale ?
I want to take advantage of the dip but not sure if we might be getting more of a sale. What is everyone buying that’s might double by maybe next year? I know nobody has a crystal ball but just asking for opinions. This is what I’m looking at AMZN …