Posts
UAA Turnaround
A couple of weeks ago I posted a turnaround thesis on Under Armour. It got a lot more attention than I expected, and while plenty of people disagreed with me, I appreciated the pushback because it made me think harder about the risks. My original point wasn’t that Under Armour …
I think biotech stocks (like MRNA for example) are having a savage comeback similar to the post dotcom-boom in the early 2000s
Back in 2000-2005 when biotech stocks ruled for a cycle and every single one you bought was basically a winner, I think the same thing has been forming for the past few months in a world post-AI bump. Biotech seems to becoming a major rhetoric again now with AI advancements …
Any thoughts on buy and hold lowest PE ratio mag 7 (rebalance every year)? - Analysis
Rule tested: each year buy the Mag7 stock with the lowest positive year-end trailing P/E from the prior year, hold for 1 year, rebalance annually. Selections were mostly Apple 2013–2020, then Meta 2021–2024, then Google 2025. Apple’s PE was very low in the 2010s, often around 10–16, and Meta became …
CTSH near 9x earnings after IT-services selloff: value play or AI-driven value trap?
For context behind the numbers: Cognizant’s latest finance feed had it around **$41.07**, with a P/E near **8.9x**. Its Q1 report showed **$5.4B revenue**, **5.8% YoY growth**, and **21% quarterly bookings growth**, while Reuters also noted the company guided Q2 revenue below estimates due to cautious IT spending and macro …
Everyone loved “boring compounders”… until AI capex started showing up on the income statement
Just a few months ago, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google were essentially set it and forget it stocks. No one questioned them. You bought the shares, reinvested the dividends, and moved on. Now something has changed quietly. These companies still dominate cloud computing, enterprise software, and AI development, but the market …
Thoughts on NVDA?
NVDA has been flat for a year now, ratios keeps compressing but the stock is going nowhere it seems. I thought after the recent breakout in april, we would consolidate higher, but no, it came back down to where it has been since a year ago. The ratios keeps compressing …
Was today’s move institutional rebalancing into software or simply closing shorts?
Wondering what you think of today’s move in software (IGV). Was this simply institutions closing their shorts within software names, or do we think they are rebalancing into these names? We’ve seen bounces like this over the last couple months, but have led back to the same old downtrend. I …
Why can't short-term trading and long-term stock holding coexist?
A lot of people treat long term investing and short term trading like they are mutually exclusive. In reality, they don’t have to be. The problem is most people mix them inside the same pool of capital. ETF investing is basically outsourcing returns to system level mean reversion. Individual stocks …
Oracle power Plc
I havw been in a speculative stock for 6 years now Oracle Power PLC. The mining license for their Gold procject in Austrailia is due soon. Oracle Power is an international project developer quoted on London’s AIM Market (ORCP), developing projects in Pakistan and Australia. The company is led by …
MSFT is having its worst month in decades, and I'm weirdly more interested now
A few weeks ago, I probably would have called Microsoft the easiest boring long-term hold in the market. Now the stock is getting hit hard because investors are finally asking the uncomfortable question: how much AI spending is too much? That’s a fair concern. Microsoft is spending aggressively on AI …