Posts
0DTE Types: Remember To Close Your Positions Before 2PM EDT
Yes, everyone expects "no change", and yes, that's probably what we're going to get. But the market typically expresses disappointment (or whatever) when the decision is announced, even if it's what everyone expects. Unless you're a gambler, wait for things to settle down after the announcement.
Does price actually get pulled toward max pain? I graded 20 expirations so far, every row published
I got tired of seeing "price pins to max pain into opex" stated as fact with zero receipts, so I started keeping score. Every night I write down the front-expiration max pain for \~40 tickers. When those contracts expire, I check where the close actually landed. The forecast exists before …
390 rule and after hours
Just got a warning from Interactive Brokers that I am close to this rule with three days left. But I was wondering if this rule also includes after hours trading beyond the regular trading session of 8:30am to 4:00pm central time, hence where the name came from 390 minutes.
Any stocks or sectors not being battered right now?
I sell puts on ai and tech stocks. Suffice to say ive taken a beating over the last month. Is there any sector with decent premium thats doing okay right now?
Delta for credit spreads, general r/r
I'm working on an options scanner of sorts. For the credit spread portion I was in the 20-40 delta range selecting a couple of top rated setups, one high pop, one high credit, for review. To refine, I googled accepted r/r on credit spreads and was told that profit target …
Sell Put Disallowed loss questions
1. sell puts 2 contracts @-1.0, 1st close @-0.5, 2nd close @-0.1 in a month, is disallowed lost? 2. sell puts 2 contracts @-1.0, 1st close @-0.5, 2nd close @-1.1 in a month, is disallowed lost? Thanks.
On Fed days 91% of the 9:35 premium is still on the board at 2pm. On normal days it's 30%
The usual Fed-day pitch is that IV is jacked up so you should sell it. What matters more for how you actually trade the day is when the premium comes out, and on a Fed day it barely comes out at all until 2pm. I pulled the intraday premium curve …
SPX EOD Case Study: 0DTE Call Trap at the 3:50 PM Closing Cross
Wanted to share a post-market look at how 0DTE option premiums behaved during the last 15 minutes of yesterday's SPX session (July 28). Even though SPX held up as a green trend day (finishing up around +15.6 points), the EOD price action was a brutal trap for late 0DTE momentum …
SPX vs /ES and SPY at open
I trade SPX options and estimating the open is vital to my strategy. Since SPX has no premarket, I use /ES to try to gauge the open. Because they are very similar in price, I simply look at the point gain or drop in /ES and add or subtract that …
Mag 7 covered-call backtest: Actually, buy-and-hold won 12 of 14 times
I wanted to test whether rolling approximately 20-delta covered calls could beat simply holding every Magnificent 7 stock over the past two years. So I reproduced the strategy using historical implied volatility surfaces to model each contract more precisely. # Methodology I tested: * AAPL * AMZN * GOOGL * …