Posts
Market conditions heading into late Feb - what are you watching?
With several major macro data releases and earnings on the horizon, I’m curious what the investing community is focusing on right now. Some broad themes that feel relevant: * Central bank policy expectations and real yields versus equity valuations * Sector rotation signals (growth vs value) * Earnings guidance trends …
The "Meh" Case For Microsoft
I've seen a lot of comments lately about how MSFT is one of the most obvious buys in the market at sub-400 levels. I've been following MSFT pretty closely for years, having bought shares when it was $70 in the summer of 2017 and holding them until exiting the position …
Some Institutional Insight about today's price action and expectation for next week
Been seeing a bunch of posts about today's volatility so I want to provide some insight from an institutional trading desk what's going on. 1st let zoom out that we've really been trading range bound for a while now on the SPX and more less been holding CTAs price levels …
Why did market not move as big as it did when tariffs were imposed ?
Generally, if something is anticipated, market prices it before the news comes out. This was a surprise news. (or wasn't it ? why ?) But market is almost literally flat. Quite an opposite reaction to what happened when tariffs were declared/imposed. Why is that ? What's your theory ?
Trump attacks Supreme Court, says he's imposing 10% 'global tariff'
The Supreme Court scrambled the US trade landscape Friday when it struck down the centerpiece of President Trump’s second-term tariff program, ruling 6-3 that his sweeping blanket tariffs are illegal. The ruling came just over one year into Trump’s second term and after skeptical questioning from key justices during oral …
Fundamentals vs Trend Check (Mega Caps)
I screened for large/liquid US names with Buy/Strong Buy analyst consensus and reasonable valuation (P/E ≤ \~35), then sanity-checked fundamentals (growth + margins + balance sheet) and trend (RSI, MACD, and where price sits vs 20/50/200-day moving averages). Here are 10 strong fundamental companies and their short term (few weeks)/long …
Weird market today given the tariff news
SCOTUS ruled Trump’s tariffs were illegal, but the market didn't move as *enthusiastically* as it had when the tariffs were being implemented or even when it was announced some weeks ago that SCOTUS was keen on shooting them down. Obviously, sentiment is the sum of a multitude of factors, but …
Is this a reasonable composition?
I(European) recently started investing via IBKR and want to set up a rather simplistic investment strategy that I can follow. Most people suggest VWCE and chill but personally I don't feel entirely comfortable with very heavy AI/Tech focus even if VWCE seems to provide stable results. After quite some research …
US Tariffs to continue despite Scotus ruling .
Trade expert Lawrence Herman says the Supreme Court rebuke of Trump’s tariffs won’t end trade tensions. The administration can still use other tools, and Canada continues to face sectoral tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, and forest products. “Tariffs are here to stay in one form or another,” Herman adds, warning …
The Cost of Standing Still: 1 year contribution gap
I’ve been investing consistently for years and have built a "not-too-shabby" Net Worth. However, due to a shift in circumstances, I’m looking at a 1-year "contribution holiday" where I won’t be able to add anything new to the pile. Assume I’m roughly 5 years out from retirement and usually contribute …