Posts
Do you buy stocks at current price level?
I can be wrong but many people are so optimistic about long term growth of stocks. I am not saying they are wrong but s&p 500 is expensive based on the euphoric future estimation. The geopolitical uncertainty can increase the probability the euphoric future might not come at all. I …
Thoughts on a 12-year illiquid private infrastructure deal with zero interim distributions?
Have an opportunity to invest in a private hard infrastructure asset via a feeder fund and want a reality check. The pitch: Buying an essential intl asset from a distressed seller at a steep discount. Debt is paid off early, and then cash just accumulates on the balanxe sheet for …
Be honest: do you actually form your own macro view or just adjust slightly from what futures price?
I've started noticing a pattern in myself and I wonder if it's universal. Fed meeting coming up. I look at CME FedWatch. It says 72% hold. I read some research. I think about the data. I end up at 68%. Or 75%. Always within spitting distance of the market. Is …
What do you actually pay for when it comes to macro research and forecasting?
Bloomberg terminal, obviously. Bank research from the bulge brackets. Maybe a Stratfor or Eurasia Group sub if you're in a geopolitical-heavy role. But when it comes to actual probability on a specific event, like "will the Fed cut before June" or "will OPEC extend cuts", what are people paying for? …
Where to invest in a possible war scenario?
How are you guys planning financially with the possibility of a war in mind? Where are you putting your money knowing this risk exists? And how would your strategy change depending on the scenario: if a war actually happens, or if it doesn’t and things continue relatively normally?”
Strategy for Investment Location Priorities
So I jumped on Fidelity in January and just did the typical Individual Brokerage Account just to dip my feet in. Then I started a UTMA for my son. Then I added a Roth IRA. Then I added a 529 for education. Kinda regret all of these accounts but whatever …
Honest question: what's your actual process for forming a rates view before a Fed meeting?
Not what the process should be in theory. What you actually do. I'll go first. I check CME FedWatch, skim the last FOMC minutes, read whatever Goldman or JPM sent over, and basically end up at "yeah the market's probably right, maybe slightly off." That's it. That's the process. I …
"Trillions wiped out overnight" - why this statement is misleading
A stock price is not money. It's a momentary agreement between a buyer and a seller. If a company's stock trades at $100, it doesn't mean all shares can be sold for $100. It only means the last trade happened at that price. The moment a large number of shareholders …
Home purchase vs Reinvesting in the market
I will keep this short, I liquidated ~60% of my portfolio in Jan/Feb for a house down payment. I do not need a house for any reason besides avoiding the annoyance of renting. When does it become worth it to use my down payment money to reinvest into the market? …
The Hidden Cost of Sending Workers to Gas Stations
A friend who manages a construction company explained something I never thought about before. Fueling vehicles at gas stations actually creates operational inefficiency. Think about it. Every time a worker stops to fill up a vehicle: * time is lost * projects slow down * fuel receipts need tracking * …