Posts
The 10% drop in the S&P 500 this month is extremely rare
A monthly drop of 10% or more in the S&P 500 is rare, occurring on average only about once every **7 to 10 years**. Over the last decade, there has been only one larger monthly drop: the **12.5% decline** in March 2020 during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. \[1, …
Why doesn't the current and previous oil situation cause a stronger desire for green energy?
I understand the petroleum industry has the leverage, but with another oil crisis how do these tensions not cause a stronger motivation for green energy infrastructure? Not to say it doesn't have its own complications, but earlier development of wind farms, solar, battery, etc. you wouldn't have to worry about …
Are godsburnt and barkmeta worth following for actual insights
came across shibo (david chaboki) and bark (christian barker) through their godsburnt and barkmeta accounts and trying to figure out if theyre worth the follow theyve been running a bunch of sessions on crypto spaces network and the content seems more focused on actual strategy and market structure instead of …
How’s everyone’s portfolio doing
As per title. How badly red/green are y'all portfolio right now after yesterday's market close? Personally for me, my portfolio hit ATH on 3 November 2025 and is since down about 39% from the high. Holding quite a few high beta names right now Fundamentally though, nothing much has changed …
Is it any better/worse to invest in fixed-income investment right now? (Treasury notes or i-bonds, CDs, etc)
Ended up with a larger than expected tax-return and a desire to actually start preparing for any sort of long-term financial future, and I'm looking at the wider bullshit going on and assuming stocks are currently not where I want to investing money at the moment. So, what sort of …
Moving from HYSA to tax exempt bonds?
I live in CA and am still working full time, looking to quit working in corporate early in 1-2 years and live off my brokerage and cash accts. Because of my income from work i end up paying a lot more in taxes every year because of the interest from …
It so happens I moved all my retirement $ to a new advisor in Dec 2025. I assume recent losses have nothing to do with this fact??
Hey everyone. I think I know the answer to this, but just need to ask... It so happens that just three months ago, I decided transfer my entire investment portfolio balance from Vanguard (where I'd been managing/directing my mutual fund allocations, all on my own) over to a private advisor …
Started late, what are my best options?
This may be kind of long, but I’ll try to sum things up. Up until 21 I had a rough life, personal things and was in and out of rehab. I just got my life “together” a few years back, including a new career. I did get into debt from …
Institutional De-risking Report: COT Data and Probability Models show heavy Distribution in Equities vs. Record Inflows in 2Y Treasuries 📊
Hi everyone. I’ve processed this week's close by cross-referencing three core metrics from my analysis model: **Statistical Momentum** (Z-Score), **Institutional Net Flow** (Commitment of Traders - COT), and **Machine Learning Probability Models**. The data points to a massive "Flight to Quality." Here is the full asset-by-asset breakdown: **1. S&P 500** …
The market isn’t cheap right now. It’s just less expensive.
The market isn’t cheap right now. It’s just less expensive. S&P 500 right now: • \~25–26x trailing P/E • \~20–21x forward P/E Both are still well above long-term historical averages. Yeah, it’s come down from the 2021–2022 insanity, but “cheap” or “undervalued” is a massive stretch. Every time the market …