Posts
The Fed chair transition happening now may matter more for markets than today's rate decision
Today the Federal Reserve holds its April meeting. The rate decision is fully priced 100% probability of no change at 3.50-3.75%. But there is a longer term story worth thinking about. This is Jerome Powell's last meeting as Fed chair. Kevin Warsh takes over on May 15. Warsh has stated …
What’s the Microsoft bull case?
Microsoft has a wide, competitive software moat, but software in general is under threat from growing AI capability. As far as the AI race is concerned, it seems their cloud service azure lags behind competitors like Google, and others. They recently lost their solo relationship with open AI. Microsoft copilot …
Fidelity came up with this plan for me and I am not sure what to make of it.
They are proposing the following to me: 45 y/o male currently mostly in cash. Based on our discussions and my risk factor, they are saying 70/30 stocks and bonds. THey are saying it would be a blend of fidelity and non fidelity funds/etfs. I would start with about 50k to …
Campine nv just released their annual report from 2025
**Campine NV – 2025 report** Read through the full 2025 annual report. A few key takeaways: **2025 headline numbers** * Revenue: €766m * EBITDA: €89.1m * Net profit: €56.6m * EPS: €37.75 **Adjustments / one-offs** * Bargain purchase gain (Ecobat): \~€6.5m net (\~€4.3/share) * Transaction costs: \~€0.7m → Normalised net …
VTI averaging 20% per year; am I looking at this correctly?
Since it's inception 25 years ago, the value of VTI has increased 510%. That comes out to an average annual gain of 20.4%, which seems unrealistic. What I've heard is to expect an average annual gain of 8-10% over a 20 to 30-year time period. Is there something I'm analyzing …
Which IPO are you most excited for?
The 2026 IPO calendar is stacked with heavyweights like SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, and Chime. After the X-Energy heat, I think the second half of the year will be a historic test for high-growth tech valuations. Which 2026 IPO are you most excited for, and which one do you think is …
I ran Joel Greenblatt’s Magic Formula for 1 year. Finished +35.48%. Here’s what happened.
I read Joel Greenblatts "The Little Book That Beats the Market" last year and decided to try the *magic formula* for myself. If you have't read the book then in summary the idea is to pick stocks that are are a good price and make good returns on invested capital …
Arch Capital (ACGL), a $34B specialty insurer I've been researching. Here's my analysis.
been working through Arch Capital for the past few weeks and wanted to get my notes down somewhere. posting here because I'd genuinely like to hear what I'm getting wrong. short version of why I bothered. it's a specialty property and casualty insurer, plus reinsurance, plus mortgage insurance. roughly $34B …
High school student looking to build a finance project. What problems need solving?
Hey, high school student here I am looking to build a program that solves real world finance problems people deal with If you have run into something frustrating in areas like budgeting, investing, taxes, or tracking expenses that you could not find a good solution for, I would like to …
Big Pharma Peptide investing
So almost everyone at my gym is on peptides, it seems every moderately wealthy man over 50 I know is on TRT or Reta or some mixture of 4-6 compounds. The results from Reta are unreal and people are swearing by them. Not that peptides are a secret or even …