Posts
“YouTubers”uncompensated risk?
If you google asset allocation on YouTube you’ll find several videos of YouTubers who claim their portfolio mix is superior to traditional portfolio mixes. Most have foundation etf in VTI/VOO and also a growth fund (SCHG or QQQM). They never speak to overlap or uncompensated risk. Any thought about this? …
China's RMB settlement push through CIPS and Belt & Road is quietly accelerating
China's long term strategy for increasing the international use of the yuan is showing up through two connected channels. The Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) and trade settlement frameworks linked to the Belt & Road Initiative. CIPS, launched by the People’s Bank of China in 2015, functions as a dedicated …
E*Trade offers 5 Zero fee Index mutual funds!
Maybe I wasn't paying attention or E\*Trade is horrible at marketing, but they offer 5 zero fee Index mutual funds as of April 2025. Two that caught my attention are: \- ETTOX (Total USA) \- ETISX (International) What are your thoughts on them? Do they compete well with Fidelity's zero …
How the AI bubble is going to pop
LLM training and inference are horrifically inefficient. It's fairly easy to count the number of tokens a human and LLM need to learn a language fluently. LLM needs around 150X more than a human. Inference efficiency gap estimates I've seen are similar. Memory usage is the same story. If you …
Gold is falling because the dollar is too strong. The real risk comes later.
Gold falling to around $4,698 does not need to be overcomplicated. The simplest explanation is still the strongest one: gold is priced in dollars, and the dollar is strong. When the dollar rises, gold becomes more expensive for non-dollar buyers, so gold naturally comes under pressure. Oil staying elevated also …
Introducing broker programs are basically incentive design problems
I don’t usually see many people discuss IB programs from an incentive-design perspective, but I think they are actually a good example of how financial businesses shape behavior. A typical IB program may reward partners based on new funded clients, client deposits, active users, and trading activity. From the broker’s …
BTBT/WYFI NAV earnings play
[1bsar.github.io/BTBT-WYFI-NAV/](https://1bsar.github.io/BTBT-WYFI-NAV/) So I've been doing a ton of research on AI data center plays and Ive come across this and I want to lay it all out and share it because I genuinely think this is one of the better setups I've seen in a while. I also built a …
Gold fell on war headlines today. This might actually be the market’s most honest signal
If you step back and look at all the key asset moves together today, there is a meaningful takeaway here. Trump called Iran’s peace proposal totally unacceptable. Gold dropped to around $4,698. The dollar strengthened steadily. Oil held its elevated level without pulling back. The fact that gold fell even …
Are small/mid caps finally back?
I was messing around with some rolling return data on the available funds in my 401(k) account today. Mainly comparing three different funds: VIIIX (S&P 500 index) JLGMX (Large Cap growth) VEMPX (small/mid cap). Large/mega caps have dominated the market for at least the last 10 years. However, this year …
Solo 401k vs Brokerage Account
I am self employed and currently max out my Roth IRA. I have a brokerage account that I invest in a few stocks and etfs as well. I just learned about Solo 401k. I dont sell any of my holdings in my brokerage account and plan to hold most (if …