Posts
Why Most Traders Blow Up Even With a Positive Expectancy
People often confuse positive expectancy with “easy money.” They are not the same thing. Imagine a game where: * 50% chance to gain +80% * 50% chance to lose -50% * You are forced to go all-in every round At first glance, this looks amazing. The expected return per trade …
All of Buffett's advice and techniques are NONSENSE in the 21st century
Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, the Intelligent Investor, and the entire culture and mindset around value-investing has been a DESTROYER of wealth and a killer of opportunities for decades. I am mostly an index guy, but I read about value investing, read the Intelligent Investor from cover to cover, …
SOXX: Near New Highs,Watch for a Failed Breakout and Range Trange
# SOXX is attempting to break to a new high here, but traders should pay close attention to the follow-through after the breakout. The recent selloff into the `EMA20` was the first meaningful bear breakout in a strong bull trend. In strong bull trends, the first reversal attempt usually fails, …
How will SpaceX IPO impact market?
# From what little I understand, investors will move money from other stocks and funds to buy into SpaceX. Which specific stocks do you think will take the biggest hit? # Also what impact will it have on index funds such as NASDAQ, S&P? I suppose I'd also be interested …
$WYY - Micro cap with imminent transformational catalyst
WidePoint Corp is a U.S. Govt IT/services contractor who basically help federal agencies manage their mobile phones, telecoms contracts, SIMs/ data bills etc. In short, fairly boring, however they are on the cusp of potentially winning a massive DHS contract (CWMS 3.0) worth up to $3bn over a 10 year …
Funds to invest in [in place of HYSA]
I have around $50k I would like to invest in a Schwab brokerage account instead of it sitting in a HYSA that’s getting about 3.5%. The desired goal with the money is to have in invested in a easy to liquidate fund, that mimics a steady growth and returns better …
Trump’s Quantum Bet Has A Weird Second-Order Trade Nobody Is Pricing Yet
The easy reaction to the Trump quantum headline is pretty obvious. Quantum stocks run, traders chase the names with the cleanest ticker connection, and everyone starts talking about computing power, cybersecurity, defense, AI, simulation and government money. That makes sense. If Washington is reportedly looking at around $2 billion in …
SpaceX IPO and NASDAQ violating its own methodology
When spaceX (X) lists ok NASDAQ(Q), Q will put X on a fast track listing at that is both unprecedented and in violation of its internal methodology (they call it a change in methodology). So a brand new company without history of trade volume or floating market cap suddenly shows …
UHAL Ugly earnings screen, fleet cycle repair question, May 27 catalyst
UHAL is worth watching into its May 27 fiscal Q4 release because the current debate is not really about one quarter. Its about whether the company is facing permanent business deterioration or a fleet cost cycle that may be nearing the point where the damage stops getting worse. Q3 fiscal …
NIO Q1 2026: Revenue +123%, Deliveries +98%, Vehicle Margin Hits 18.8%
NIO reported Q1 2026 results above expectations, with major year-over-year improvement across deliveries, revenue, margins, and losses. **Key numbers:** * EPS: **-$0.03 vs. -$0.24 expected** * EPS surprise: **+87.5%** * Revenue: **$3.70B vs. $3.55B expected** * Revenue growth: **+123.2%** * Total deliveries: **83,465 vehicles**, up **98.3% YoY** * Vehicle sales: …