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#4 May 17 '24: Newborn Town
<p>Full analysis deck (<strong>click image below to view or download on OneDrive</strong>):</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" href="https://1drv.ms/b/s!AqbtwuuEXS4cgSesYhke_9i_JUab?e=CaOTsU" target="_blank"><div class="image2-inset"><source type="image/webp" /><img alt="" class="sizing-normal" height="814" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd91b2088-ab3f-4d97-bd76-4f6ee5593f61_1690x945.png" width="1456" /><div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>3-statement financial model (<strong>click image below to view or download on OneDrive</strong>):</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" href="https://1drv.ms/x/s!AqbtwuuEXS4cgSu6LPRVmpWxoVey?e=q9PGws" target="_blank"><div class="image2-inset"><source type="image/webp" /><img alt="" class="sizing-normal" height="694" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0ea9bdde-5f30-4b40-abf4-83f555a76d83_1408x694.png" width="1408" …
(2/3) China Outlook vs Japan Lost Decades
<p>In this part of the series, we finish the Japan comparison. Our perspective is that of longer-term equity investors, but the findings would also be relevant for global macro specialists, traders and economists alike.</p><p><strong>A quick review of our findings so far.</strong></p><p>In the <a href="https://www.alphaexponent.net/p/13-the-bullish-decade">first part of this series</a>, we analyzed …
(1/3) Fantastic Multibaggers and Where to Find Them
<p>The mythical multibagger, that rarest of beasts, has drawn much attention, including multiple books such as “100 to 1 in the stock market” by Phelps, and “100 baggers” by Mayer. We start this series, though, with a look at “<a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5aaacb57506fbe4636414126/t/5f85c428b4bac16b20450df0/1602602051503/Conclusion+Deck-+Makings+of+a+MultiBagger+-+FINAL-compressed.pdf">the Makings of a Multibagger</a>”, a fine study conducted by …
Delta #5 2024: Chinese Consumption
<p>On June 24, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued a notice on "Measures to Create New Consumption Scenarios and Cultivate New Growth Points in Consumption" (hereinafter referred to as "Measures").</p><blockquote><p>This department promulgates a lot of the commercial reforms in China, and can provide forward policy guidance.</p></blockquote><p>The …
(3/3) China vs Japan: Making Predictions
<p>Continuing from the <a href="https://www.alphaexponent.net/p/13-the-bullish-decade">first</a> and <a href="https://www.alphaexponent.net/p/china-outlook-vs-japan-lost-decades">second</a> parts of this series, we now address:</p><ul><li><p>What are the similarities and differences between China now, and the lost decades for the comparison set (Japan, Italy and Russia)?</p></li><li><p>Given these insights, what can we expect for the Chinese economy going forward, and what are …
Q2 2024 portfolio review
<p>As we enter the second half of the year, it is time to review and reflect on the portfolio performance to date. So far, it has been a very good year, returning 36.69% versus the 15.13% of the S&P 500. </p><p>We use the total return index of the S&P 500 …
#5 July 12 '24: Gambling.com
<p>We are experimenting with an easier to read format today, taking an opportunistic look at a NASDAQ-listed (we normally analyze a lot of Asian companies) smallcap, gambling.com, a founder-led digital marketing company that drives traffic to online gambling operators. </p><p>Despite the name, it is not a gambling operator, but primarily …
Tesla: Elon, EVs, and Economics
<p>A ‘stupid’ idea.</p><p>That was how Musk reacted when Harold Rosen, a veteran in the space industry, suggested building electric drones to provide Internet service over lunch. Straubel, who would go on to become a co-founder of Tesla, quickly pivoted to the topic of electric cars using lithium-ion batteries.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor"><div class="subscription-widget …
(1/2) Duan the Dilettante
<p>Others invest for a living, he does so for fun.</p><p>He was born to a family living in acute food insecurity, and failed his college entrance exams the first time round.</p><p>His first job paid less than $25 — per month.</p><p>He went on to found his own company at the age of …
(2/2) Duan the Dilettante
<p>In the <a href="https://www.alphaexponent.net/p/duan-the-dilettante-12">first installment</a> of this series, Duan just announced his resignation from Subor.</p><p>According to the agreement with Yihua, the parent company, Duan was entitled to 20% of Subor’s profits, though he shared it with the team instead of keeping it all.</p><p>The issue was that Yihua often diverted Subor’s …