themacrocompass
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This is a True Regime Change
<p><strong>We are observing a true regime change in markets.</strong><br />And for macro investors, it’s incredibly important to stay vigilant and on top of our game at this stage.</p><p>It all starts with this: <strong>the Fed is behind the curve, and it is playing with fire.</strong></p><p>Consider this.<br />The recently released US job …
China Is Imploding
<p>The news of the week is NOT the Fed cutting 50 bps - yes sure, that’s important but there is something much more relevant going on.</p><p><strong>The Chinese economy keeps imploding from within.</strong><br />And we should pay attention.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F00a8b1d5-187c-451b-9c0a-066c06f890d9_717x523.png" target="_blank"><div class="image2-inset"><source type="image/webp" /><img alt="" class="sizing-normal" height="523" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F00a8b1d5-187c-451b-9c0a-066c06f890d9_717x523.png" …
The Big Chinese Bazooka
<p>The Chinese real estate market is de-leveraging very hard. </p><p>Economists estimate <strong>Chinese households have suffered $10+ trillion of wealth losses as a result.</strong> <br />There is now a strong urge to stop the bleeding amongst Chinese policymakers.</p><p>Last week, <strong>China unleashed a ‘‘stimulus bazooka’’.</strong></p><p>But what were the measures all about?<br />And …
Macro Clouds On The Horizon
<p>The key macro event of 2024 is approaching: US elections are around the corner.</p><p><strong>Next week I will release a deep research piece on US elections</strong>, which will be centered around the key questions looming large.</p><p>How to trade different scenarios?<br />What happens to markets if Trump secures a Red Sweep? <br …
A Scary Bond Market
<p>Good morning and welcome back to The Macro Compass. This is Alf writing.</p><p><strong>It’s almost been 3 years together now - and I loved every little bit of it.</strong><br />I treasure each and every supportive comment you threw at me, and vividly remember hitting 100,000 subscribers and jumping out of joy. …
Trump Trades – More Room To Run?
<p>Hey, this is Alf speaking - welcome back to The Macro Compass!</p><p>Given the large influx of paid subscribers at the previous round, <strong>we are extending our big discount also to our cheapest tier - The Long Term Investor.</strong></p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading The Macro Compass! Subscribe for …
A Fresh Look At Bond Markets
<p>Looking back at the 2015-2021 period when I traded bond markets at a large bank, it was quite boring.</p><p>Rates were mostly stuck around 0% at the front-end, and to make money you had to find small dislocations and monetize them with leverage hoping volatility would remain low forever.</p><p><strong>Today, the story …
What To Buy For A Macro Portfolio In 2025
<p>Good morning, this is Alf - welcome back to The Macro Compass!<br />I wish you a fantastic year ahead: follow your passions, keep learning, and don’t drink cappuccino after 11am.</p><p>In this macro piece, we will cover the biggest market mover for H1 2025: <strong>tariffs.</strong><br />We will also investigate what’s <strong>the …
How To Prepare For Tariff Day
<p>Next week will be crucial for markets as Trump is set to announce (or disappointingly not announce) tariffs.</p><p>In this piece <strong>I will highlight the rationale behind my base case scenario and its impact on markets.</strong></p><p>Before we do that, I want to share something with you.</p><p><strong>I am offering a FREE trial</strong> …
Bond Market Rally Next?
<p>Hi everyone, Alf here - welcome back to The Macro Compass!</p><p>I am proud to announce that <strong>my macro hedge fund Palinuro Capital is live!</strong></p><p>Do you want to be updated about the <em><strong>performance and progress of my hedge fund?</strong></em></p><p>Sign up for free here:</p><p class="button-wrapper"><a class="button primary button-wrapper" href="https://forms.gle/UX3iJLgjRiKVh4U16"><span>Update Me On Alf's …