r/SecurityAnalysis

Q2 2026 Letters and Reports

This is an attempt to recreate the posts that got me coming to this reddit in the first place. I would love if Beren came back again! Please forgive any typos/formatting issues as this is my first time posting on …

How the multiple imposes fundamental questions

AI Bears Have the Right Numbers and the Wrong Names

Application Software Earnings Preview: The Setup Into August

[https://alphaseeker84.substack.com/p/application-software-earnings-preview](https://alphaseeker84.substack.com/p/application-software-earnings-preview)

What a Dollar of AI Datacenter Actually Earns

Deep Dive: Uber Technologies [$UBER]

Priced and diagramed the layers of the AI supply chain - evaluated on true FCF yield (OCF - CapEx - SBC) for 30 tickers. The "AI winners" mostly yield below the risk-free rate.

Ran a true FCF yield screen across the entire AI value chain: hyperscalers, chip designers, TSMC, memory (Micron), ASML, semi equipment (Lam/KLA), materials suppliers (MKSI/ENTG/UCTT), and a control group of "beaten-down SaaS" names the market has priced as AI casualties …

[free] Brazil Fast Fashion Overview

Non-Pro-Rata Rewards In-Court: An Attempt to Loot Bankruptcy

HCI Group deep dive: normalized FCF yield after reserve release adjustment, statutory subsidiary dividend caps, Citizens 20% depopulation mechanics, and two-storm empirical loss history. Looking for pushback on the reinsurance structure and the tort reform durability thesis.

The two analytical questions I'd most welcome pushback on from this community: First: how durable is the 2022-2023 Florida tort reform improvement? The loss ratio improvement from 55% to 29% is partly structural and partly a reserve release tailwind. My …