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- Total posts
- 351
- Total predictions
- 23
- Success rate
- 30.4%
- Avg score
- 0.08
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Avoid Diluters
[Here's a link to the full study](https://riskpremiumresearch.substack.com/p/forecasting-dilution) I've noticed that companies will announce a dilution and, almost always, the stock will immediately tank. I got curious and dug through the data of 10,000+ dilution events since 2016 and over 3,000 …
BUY
TPL insider is buying one share every business day. anyone else seen this pattern?
noticed something weird on TPL and wanted to see if anyone else has flagged it. Horizon Kinetics has been buying one share of TPL almost every trading day for the last month. not one thousand, not a hundred. one share. …
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SK Hynix's ADR Gap isn't Supposed to Exist Yet
Three days ago SK Hynix priced its ADR at $149 in New York and raised $26.5 billion. In the largest foreign listing in US history. First day it closed up 13% at $168.49. Today Seoul dropped it another 15.4%. Kospi …
BUY
Adobe bear case straw-man and response: ARR deceleration (10 consecutive quarters), Chegg/BlackBerry parallel, executive churn vs. deferred revenue acceleration, USASpending.gov contract data, and a one-third casual user stress test. Looking for pushback on the ARR trend specifically.
The bear case that I think has the most analytical teeth isn't the Chegg comparison or the executive churn. It's this: organic ARR growth has decelerated for ten consecutive quarters, from 10.9% to 10.5%. That's a sustained directional trend that …
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Victoria PLC 2028 Bonds - An asymmetric Opportunity
On 3rd July, I published a detailed write‑up on Substack explaining why the **Victoria PLC 2028 bonds**, trading at **\~20 cents**, offered one of the most asymmetric opportunities in UK credit for investors willing to engage with a complex situation. …
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