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Starship explosion #13

REDDIT / DreamsSecretsNLogic / Jul 16, 2026

I really think that SpaceX is a complete utter fraud and failure. I watch with absolute Glee every time starship fails. I'm really praying that every time starship blows up there's a significant drop in the stock price so I …

BUY

Netflix earnings beat by $0.01, revenue fell short of estimates

REDDIT / TAKINAS_INNOVATION / Jul 16, 2026

Here are the numbers EPS: $0.80 vs. $0.79 Expected Revenue: $12.56B vs. $12.58B Expected * Netflix forecast third-quarter revenue of $12.86 billion and diluted EPS of 82 cents * Company will reduce viewing hours disclosure * Second-quarter results roughly in …

BUY

Florida homeowners insurer HCI Group: 18% true FCF yield, $4B reinsurance program, legally mandated customer pipeline from Citizens Insurance. I also pulled 15 years of data instead of just the good 3. The honest normalized yield is closer to 12%. Here's why I still own it.

REDDIT / JoeInOR / Jul 16, 2026

The easy version of this story: HCI Group is a Tampa-based Florida homeowners insurer trading at 8x P/E, 18% true FCF yield, with a CEO who's been buying its newly IPO'd tech subsidiary Exzeo in the open market every two …

POST

HCI Group deep dive: normalized FCF yield after reserve release adjustment, statutory subsidiary dividend caps, Citizens 20% depopulation mechanics, and two-storm empirical loss history. Looking for pushback on the reinsurance structure and the tort reform durability thesis.

REDDIT / JoeInOR / Jul 16, 2026

The two analytical questions I'd most welcome pushback on from this community: First: how durable is the 2022-2023 Florida tort reform improvement? The loss ratio improvement from 55% to 29% is partly structural and partly a reserve release tailwind. My …

TARG

Verizon Looks Pretty Attractive Here (Valuation)

REDDIT / beerion / Jul 16, 2026

[Here's the full post if you don't just want to read text.](https://riskpremiumresearch.substack.com/p/verizon-valuation) # Thesis I feel like some of these telecom names are starting to get too cheap to ignore. They have incredibly stable businesses and actually pretty decent margins. …

Target$65.00
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