Follow-Up Post on Earnings Day: $IONQ Set for a Massive Rally with Multiple Catalysts Ahead
**TL;DR:** Still long $IONQ on earnings day and not planning to sell anytime soon. Nothing in this post is financial advice, as I consistently lose money.
**Ticker:** $IONQ
**Industry:** Computer Hardware
**Current Price:** $16.35
A month ago, I [posted](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1g3rx6h/ionq_will_experience_a_massive_rally_and_has/) about IonQ, and since then, the stock has rallied from $10 to $16. Today, the company is holding its earnings call after hours, and I expect a positive reaction in the stock price, followed by consolidation before a potential higher move later this year. Coined as the Nickelback of DD, I made a few nickels on this trade.
I won’t dive into the tech behind quantum or why it’s game-changing, but from an investment perspective, the time to position is now (though ideally, it was 6 months ago). I believe FOMO is about to kick in.
All the technical slides and key info are publicly available on IonQ’s investor website, PowerPoints, corporate presentations, and interviews with management over the years.
https://preview.redd.it/6lj4rzyh0bzd1.png?width=959&format=png&auto=webp&s=895a8e6b55df96f34886886d734f8659b9472f57
# Sources I recommend:
* Shawn Kwon: A Korean YouTuber who traveled to the States to [interview](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YldqcQ35NlQ) IonQ’s management. He recently posted an insightful [interview](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OezQl80rloU) with them.
* Peter Chapman: IonQ’s CEO has had some interviews that are really hyping me up. In a [recent](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSVRPDrI8aI) one, he discusses how quantum is gaining commercial traction, especially due to having the right product at the right time, solving AI's growing energy needs.
* Forbes Interview on Quantum AI: Forbes recently [covered](https://www.forbes.com/sites/torconstantino/2024/10/02/is-quantum-computing-an-unlikely-answer-to-ais-looming-energy-crisis/) the role of quantum AI in addressing AI's energy demands, with IonQ revealing that they're launching a quantum-AI chip prototype in the coming months aimed at reducing power consumption.
* IonQ's Technical Roadmap: IonQ is ahead by 1 year on its ambitious [roadmap](https://ionq.com/resources/ionq-technology-and-performance-updates-milestones-commercial-advantage?utm_source=x&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=Q2-2024-webinar&utm_content=webinar&utm_term=45474) and consistently overdelivers, which gives me even more confidence in their future progress.
# Revenue Growth and Business Progress
After all, this is what we’re all here for. IonQ has consistently grown its revenue quarter over quarter. I heard Chapman mention that Q3 and Q4 are expected to be their strongest quarters, so I’m expecting a double beat today as well.
https://preview.redd.it/5wcagdfyxazd1.png?width=1979&format=png&auto=webp&s=cb8b94b8151b001a4926163c7c79e7b1d6f5ea55
This is their roadmap based on the qubits they plan to achieve. They’ve mentioned that they expect to gain a commercial advantage starting in 2026, but after today, good results could lead to forward pricing.
Qubits, like bits in classical computers, determine the computational power of quantum computers. In quantum computing, qubits scale exponentially in potential, as each additional qubit doubles the system's computational capacity. This is because a quantum system with multiple qubits can represent a superposition of all possible combinations of the qubit states, making quantum systems exponentially more powerful with each added qubit.
Bottom line: For a more powerful system, revenue is expected to scale exponentially as well, unlocking more applications that were previously unattainable.
https://preview.redd.it/blkjixeayazd1.png?width=1440&format=png&auto=webp&s=1fcc97293e73bded17a2447ba82232142133eca0
Just two days ago, their latest [system](https://status.ionq.co/), **Forte**, became accessible on their cloud. This will likely drive more revenue, as anyone can now test their systems through IonQ’s cloud or other major cloud providers.
https://preview.redd.it/jrla5dymzazd1.png?width=916&format=png&auto=webp&s=4d75c3e90390ded079954b4eb76be0ba50484289
With hyperscalers now planning to literally build nuclear reactors to power their data centers, I believe this is the perfect moment to introduce a new kind of computing product to the market. All made in the USA.
# Business Applications
I’ve heard a lot of people say that applications are at least 10 years away, and value creation will take 10-15 years. But I disagree with that perspective.
This is their landing page on quantum [applications](https://ionq.com/applications-services), and it looks solid. They’re focusing on areas that Nvidia is also targeting right now: digital twins, hybrid computing, and machine learning. Many of their staff come from top companies like Nvidia, Amazon, and Dell.
https://preview.redd.it/asslamcuuazd1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=a18728c7dbfa500838c003f7e6fe1ec449d02abe
Recently, they’ve posted some interesting job openings: one for **Quantum AI** and the other for **Quantum Applications Chemistry**, both for scientist positions.
https://preview.redd.it/plbtkkamtazd1.png?width=917&format=png&auto=webp&s=78a67ea32c71e9e122de2f29c3ad126ccba93f78
https://preview.redd.it/syiuz5ertazd1.png?width=901&format=png&auto=webp&s=8b26d7531a88554803c333a0f28f51fcfca52cf1
It seems like they’re ready to develop apps for customers right away. As mentioned in the previous post, **today** they will showcase their first application, presumably focused on the healthcare industry. Personally, I think it will be related to pharma, especially since they’ve partnered with Quantum Basel in Switzerland to provide quantum access to nearby organizations.
The good thing is that after today, investors will immediately know whether this showcased app is something of value or not. We’ll find out if it’s commercially viable and applicable to the industry or just a prototype far from commercialization. Either way, it's better to clarify this quickly.
# Options Chain
I’m sharing this to highlight that institutions are taking an interest, not to promote options gambling. In recent months, IonQ’s chain has shifted from being sh\*tty to balanced. This is the chain for the 2026 LEAPS. The OTM $35 strikes have attracted significant attention over the past few weeks, going from no open interest to 3k contracts for a $3B company since late summer.
https://preview.redd.it/ln9ryu8duazd1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=e0da88dfcb6c3b7d26615e06abf5dc9d97c59973
# Institutional and Government Interest
In a recent interview on [CNBC](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=78JiA4ealks), Amy Raslin discussed why her fund went long on IonQ. This decision came after the stock rallied from $10 to $14 just a week ago.
Additionally, Congressman Glenn Ivey [spoke](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E27cYheKQHE) with Bloomberg and Peter Chapman about the growing support for IonQ.
# Competitors
For those saying that Dell or Microsoft are leading the way in quantum hardware, they don’t know what they’re talking about.
IonQ has the highest gate fidelity and error correction in the industry, along with the largest contracts from government institutions like ARLIS. The White House has even highlighted IonQ’s efforts to scale up their manufacturing facility in Bothell as part of their "[Investing in America](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Washington-IIA-State-Fact-Sheet.pdf)" agenda.
https://preview.redd.it/zhb8fjh7wazd1.png?width=988&format=png&auto=webp&s=fd8a2eff6f5f04780723c99178ebc67d3ba404d0
# Bear Thesis
The bear thesis, largely pushed by day traders these days, focuses on technical analysis charts and claims that IonQ is overbought. A few years ago, Scorpion Capital published a short report, which was promptly [responded](https://ionq.com/posts/may-12-2022-ionq-founders-respond) to by the founders. Since then, no large short positions have emerged with a solid thesis against IonQ. It's a bet against the technology and IonQ's ability to commercialize it.
Bears often argue that IonQ is expensive based on valuation metrics and negative EPS. This argument makes no sense since they’re just starting out and went public before generating revenue.
But this is exactly the moment to make a decision in my opinion: do you believe IonQ will continue to execute its roadmap? If so, do you enter now, before the revenue starts to come in and the price catches up to projections, or do you wait until the stock is trading at higher multiples but miss the current $16 entry point?
I think that a lot of the bearish articles are laughable, especially when they keep repeating that quantum is "10 years away." Beyond timing and valuation, no other real bear arguments seem to make it into the debate.
# Founders
I’ve seen some people argue that the founders leaving IonQ to continue their research signals that the ship is sinking and is an obvious short sell. However, the reality is that the founders didn't leave because the company is failing; they transitioned to focus on their academic work after 20 years of research. The company is now in the hands of a commercial and specialized quantum team focused on scaling up the commercialization efforts.
It all started 20 years ago in a lab in Maryland, when an investor approached the founders after reading their paper in a journal. That investor proposed creating a company based on their groundbreaking technology, and here we are today.
# Conclusion
That said, the run on the stock is far from over. It will last for years, with investors cashing out at various price levels along the way. I have no idea what will be said during earnings or what we can expect from the application that is to be showcased, but I’m eagerly waiting to find out.