Okay guys so I've never made a DD post. This is prep for the next four years. What is DD on? Well, The crypto market. And before anyone says bItcOiN oNLy, i'm talking about Bitcoin, but mainly the companies around bitcoin. What do I mean?
**There are companies that literally just mine bitcoin as a "job"**
So I have three as of rn since I don't make a lot of money and have to buy cheap. Riot Industries $RIOT, Bitfarms $BITF, and Hive $HIVE. Literally anything crypto mining related right, but I think RIOT will get the most benefit out of all because it's headquartered in the Great US of A. So as of making this post, RIOT is at 12$. I actually used to own 100 shares but I discovered options and went from 3k to 0 and haven't traded in a while. However, I'm an orthodox marxist and me no like my country anymore, so Imma head out on jah just gotta get some money first.
Okay, so Riot has three plantations where they mine Bitcoin. As everyone knows, the Trump pick made crypto go on a bull run and Bitcoin reached 100k before lowering back down. I think there is a small market correction atm, but Trump has stated he wants to hold 1mil in Bitcoin for the US reserve. He also wants to make the US the "Crypto capital of the world." I think the mf just wants to pump and dump on the international level. I bet Bitcoin gets to 200k by the end of his term. Analysts have said Bitcoin could hit 1 mil by 2030, but I didn't believe that until Trump started saying the shit he did.
Now, one of the biggest issues of crypto mining is the power usage. Please just google how much power it takes to mine bitcoin. a NYT article called out Riot for running mainly on fossil fuels (96%). Riot clapped back and said they use this that and the other thing adding up to 35% but conveniently didn't mention where the other majority of power was coming from. So I think it's safe to assume fossil fuels.
**All that is cool but what about it**
So Trump has talked about starting a trade war with like everyone. But for this research I specifically looked at China, Canada, and Mexico. The top 10 things mexico gives us in exports is fucking petroleum. Canada, Natural gas. China actually doesn't matter atm unless you want to big brain it and point at we get an asston of machinery from them and I would guess we get quite a few components used for bitcoin mining. I also looked at what we like to import and export with fossil fuels right. So we are actually at a point where we are producing more energy than we use and exporting more than importing. THAT BEING SAID, It's still going to hurt the energy department but we're not as reliant as I had initially assumed.
So, I learned that a lot of the energy we use here in the US to power our energy grids is fucking Natural Gas. Like, an asston. Check this graph out.
https://preview.redd.it/fogzol8rb26e1.png?width=860&format=png&auto=webp&s=6bd96872d3cde474b933532594e9de9bea30cdeb
So the unfortunate news is I do believe that the energy is going to suffer a little bit which could in the short term completely backshot Riot industries causing a drop in the stock. However, I don't think that will happen because everyone is going to be buying up bitcoin and that stock since that's all they do.
[The red line is our exports - Blue imports](https://preview.redd.it/oknplw00c26e1.png?width=846&format=png&auto=webp&s=17cae4ab6d5d780cca6ce16997882cc4900bf78a)
**So why should I trust you?**
Well let my banbet record speak for itself.
https://preview.redd.it/6ap622pr826e1.png?width=1313&format=png&auto=webp&s=7629a6beeef677e32aa8b0b73dd8353078f5dc69
You shouldn't.
My track record is horrible but I want to explain myself. So historically, I'll browse this subreddit and see other people talking about a stock and what they think. I never put a lot of thought into it like I have this. This is my area of expertise.
Side note, sorry to dude who posted the DD I bought calls and the stock immediately dumped now I'm bagholding .01 9$ calls for 12/20 so my b
**Since we've established that I am not trustworthy, here is why you shouldn't trust me using data**
So total revenue for my robinhood account is 3k down to 0, then up to 1k, now down to 500. If I stay away from options I make money. I bought SOFI when it was 4$, sold for a profit. Looked at Hut 8 mining almost two years ago at like 2-4$ whatever it was but wanted to play with options, now its 25$. Bought crypto made money on that. I just can't do options.
Please remember that, "I Just cant do options."
**Crypto is a scam**
Crypto is like literally an infinite money glitch. We all decide it has more value and poof it goes up. That doesn't work with fiat (I don't like the fiat system but that's not for here). It'll take one solar flare to bankrupt anyone who only has crypto assets.
I like the idea of crypto, but just logically speaking it doesn't do anything to buy it other than cause a shrinkage of it. Infinite money glitch.
**I've not been profitable on the stocks**
I actually mean just the market, but legit dude fr I can't make money gambling on options to save my life. You wanna know what I can make money on that I have more than once though? Fucking blackjack. I have gambled on blackjack this year on online casinos and have a net profit of at least 2k. I will not say the amount that I have won in it's entirety, but if there's anything I'm good at, it's knowing basic strategy at Blackjack. Right now, I'm staying away from the casino and trying a new side hustle because I got a part time job working in retail as a cashier. Life suck.
Side note from future me during my week ban, I've been sports betting with positive EV and have made 1500$ over the last seven days. That's more than I've earned on Robinhood since I made the account in 2020 as a 20 year old. I'm net negative 1500 on there according to the site. Also, I said "future me" because I've had this sitting in a draft that I occasionally have come back to edit.
**Why all that matter**
Remember what I said to remember? Well I am going to buy spy calls for the Fed meeting. I already have money allocated to it in robinhood. Good luck cause I usually lose when I buy calls.
A recession is coming. This next Administration is going to come with a recession and no I'm not saying that cause I'm mad I'm saying that because I believe it because the analysts believe it. That part about buying SPY calls though I 100% am considering depositing some money to buy some. Even with a recession I don't believe the crypto market will follow as long as Trump does the crypto shit he says he'll do.
**My Positions**
Here is my robinhood atm. I don't have as much money as everybody else just bear with me.
[I had to shrink the file down sorry for the grain](https://preview.redd.it/k5qsqwhta26e1.jpg?width=250&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3dfa3913214e5740487127ceb7df6c3d891008ff)
So I am going to buy and hold every stock that is literally just a company for mining bitcoin. I have already started and will use my oddsjam earnings to put into these stocks. I'm tired of being poor and want to prove myself here. I may be back for these companies earnings calls next year but we will see.
**Positions**
Positions are buy buy buy all crypto related stocks that mine. Buy Bitcoin too maybe even the ETF. I'm not sure yet if these stocks will boom and stay at high prices or not, but as of right now they are cheap. They will 100% double but whether or not they stay doubled, idk.
If you reverse me, buy puts on Riot.
TLDR: Crypto boom. Stonks quiet. When crypto boom and double, SELL. When stonk red, buy stonk cause red is temporary green is forever.
If reverse me, Buy puts for the fed meeting and sell all of your crypto.
Sources:
[https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/imports-and-exports.php](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/imports-and-exports.php)
[https://cryptoslate.com/riot-platforms-responds-to-nyt-article-on-bitcoin-mining/](https://cryptoslate.com/riot-platforms-responds-to-nyt-article-on-bitcoin-mining/)
[https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/natural-gas/imports-and-exports.php](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/natural-gas/imports-and-exports.php)
[https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3](https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3)
[https://www.forbes.com/sites/katharinabuchholz/2024/11/29/what-does-the-us-import-from-mexico-canada-and-china/](https://www.forbes.com/sites/katharinabuchholz/2024/11/29/what-does-the-us-import-from-mexico-canada-and-china/)
[https://www.ilscompany.com/products-imported-from-mexico/](https://www.ilscompany.com/products-imported-from-mexico/)