$ACHR: Now Is the Time for Archer Aviation with Upcoming Certifications, Pilot-only Flight and UAE Confidence of 2025 Commercial Launch
This is going to be an amazing 2025 for Archer Aviation with upcoming catalysts that I will list below. Also, today Archer's Chief Commercial Officer, Nikhil Goal, is speaking today about upcoming KEY milestones for Archer Aviation heading into the print.
**TLDR**: Archer's earnings call is slated for February 24, 2025 after hours. This will mark the an action packed news cycle leading right up the UAE 2025 commercialization. Bonus! There is a credible "rumor" but is pure speculation that Archer will begin piloted flight demonstrations on February 14, 2024 which is a couple weeks away. This rumor comes from a reddit post what some believe is the wife of an Archer employee which she deleted shortly thereafter but because it's reddit someone copied and wrote a plausible write up about it.
Whether that's super accurate or not we do know about some very important upcoming catalysts that are expected in the near future.
1. Let's be real, Archer has been dry on major news for a long time now. Almost 3 months since the Anduril announcement and almost a half of a year or longer since the transitions flight demonstration. This is the moment for Archer to shine amongst its peers and show why they are the leader in eVTOL aircraft both commercial and military. In today's McKinsey's eVTOL Technology seminar Nikhil Goel said, "**We will be the first in the world to launch commercial operations**."
2. The UAE is convinced that ARCHER is going to operate by late 2025 which means their guy Dr. Talib and the UAE writ large is committed to Adam and Archer's Timeline. But how do you get there? You get there by rapid certification progress happening from the US side.
https://preview.redd.it/cfer5o4xd6ge1.png?width=822&format=png&auto=webp&s=e1809e77983d81cf458962c489a141732c6026bb
Archer has taken the 5 phase process and shrunk it down to 4 phases.
https://preview.redd.it/evwd8xe1e6ge1.png?width=769&format=png&auto=webp&s=6f790a97c53c0ce3f28e028fa1ce171cea769475
https://preview.redd.it/rtwwnwm4e6ge1.png?width=817&format=png&auto=webp&s=73ca838cc60bb5ceef530386a38d9353c2da1c8f
Here is how Archer has consolidated it down to 4 phases which I believe is the combination of the Implementation phase with the Post Cert Activities phase in order to have an expedited Type Certification that can then be shown and used to the the UAE and their aviation transportation sector GCAA.
https://preview.redd.it/vt7kq9lbe6ge1.png?width=1360&format=png&auto=webp&s=2ca145742ae5ccca3849de6e53872225c0d33e60
In Figure 2-9 you will see a process that is namely the TIA (Type Inspection Authorization). This is a critical part of the type certification that is related to the type designed aircraft that will be used to certify the Midnight aircraft and ultimately lead to its Type Certification and it's production Midnight commercial use aircraft.
What is interesting is from Archer's last Q3 earnings call this past November 7, 2024 they have begun critical parts with software and systems integrations with STAGES-1 and STAGES-2 (Stages of Involvement 'FAA') software audits completed. STAGES-3 would be the pre-TIA activity where the software and hardware go through a verification process by the FAA and this is exactly where I think Archer is currently. STAGES-4 would be the final certification review.
What this does signal to me is that Archer is primed and ready for upcoming piloted flights with a pilot-only type designed Midnight aircraft. The type certification will allow them to gain UAE approval with the GCAA allowing them to initiate commercial operations in 2025.
3. I therefore expect flight demonstrations to be imminent as there is not time to waste if 2025 is the goal. There is no way Adam is going to wait until the half or 2nd half of the year to fly midnight in a pilot-only type designed built for production aircraft.
4. I am confident that Nikhil and Adam closed deals in Davos with a premier middle east partner, Saudi Arabia and their transportation agency the GACA. These deal will be announced also in the near term in the least being by the next earnings which is only 2 and a half weeks away.
5. With all of these developments and upcoming pilot flight demonstrations I am also expecting an announcement at this upcoming earnings that Phase 3 of the type certification process has been 100% completed and they are heading directly into TIA phase 4 for credit piloted flight progression.
6. Archer will start to create small batches of the Midnight aircraft which will bring real revenues for the first time since the inception of the company in 2025.
7. Bonus: All of the upcoming Archer and Anduril military application announcements that should have greater detail throughout the year.
All of these factors and more are what I believe is a critical juncture for Archer Aviation and the eVTOL industry. Other players will benefit as well such as Joby, eHang, and Vertical. I wish BETA was public but it is private so us retail can't invest.
This is a speculative investment but it is what I believe is an excellent investment for 2025 based on news and advancements in the transportation industry. As well, the new administration has promised companies regulation priority and investment for those who spend and invest $1 billion or more in manufacturing and development in the US. Archer and Anduril fit this criteria well.
For these reasons I still am maintain a $20 - $30 price target for ACHR.
Here are my current positions in Archer + > 1000 shares and Joby
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