No one knows what will happen! That said, you can look at the risks and reasonably conclude that there is an elevated probability of a recession this year.
1. Tariffs reducing int'l trade
2. General macro and fiscal uncertainty contributing to reduced consumer and business confidence, and thus reduced purchases and investments
3. DOGE-ification trend increases in private sector resulting in more layoffs, and higher unemployment
4. Came out of steepest and longest 10y/3o inversion late last year
So... I think the better question is what data points should we be focused on in the next several months to understand if the likelihood of a recession is increasing or decreasing. Personally I'm watching the below but am interested in other perspectives.
* 10y yields: Bonds are primarily an institutional market. If yields continue to fall then that is telling you what institutions, who have access to way more data, are thinking about the economy. Falling yields = recession more likely.
* Consumer confidence: This metric tracks recessionary activity well. If this continues to fall then we are in trouble.
* Commodity prices: There is plenty of noise here with tarrifs... but if you see copper and oil fall then that may be a sign of trouble.
* Large purchase spending (autos, appliances, etc): This is typically the first place you see hit at the start of a recession as people delay spending on large purchases first.
Of course if you are bogling then all of this is irrelevant to you.