StreetPredict Track Record · Est. 2024
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The market has not accurately priced in Recursion Pharmaceuticals' (RXRX) upcoming drug presentation.

P
Feb 5, 2025 · 15:37

Recursion Pharmacueticals is biotech company that claims they can use AI to develop drugs for less money, faster. They are presenting a late breaking science oral abstract session on REC-994 at the International Stroke Conference tomorrow. For those of you who (like me) didn't know what late breaking science oral abstract existed before you just read it, it's important drug information that came out recently. REC-994 is their flagship drug, and a key indicator of whether or not their claims are true or not. Biotech is notorious for its insane volatility, and when you add potentially revolutionizing how pharma works into the mix, it's only going to get even more volatile. I believe that the market has not accurately price this in. At the current prices, a 7$ put and 8$ call strangle would [break even at 8.35 and 6.65](http://opcalc.com/4lj). RXRX has moved further than that on zero news whatsoever, much less important drug results. Moreover, the IV is hovering within its usual range. So why has the market not priced this in? I have two possible explanations:

1. I'm regarded.

2. The market doesn't know recursion is going to make this presentation. There has been no news on the topic whatsoever, and the only reason I know about it is because it was a footnote on the [17th slide of their JP Morgan healthcare conference presentation](https://ir.recursion.com/static-files/0c96b530-a709-4d13-849c-5394d8571b3f). In the actual presentation they didn't mention this, so it's entirely possible most people just missed it. Recursion is also [not mentioned by name on the stroke conference's website](https://professional.heart.org/en/meetings/international-stroke-conference/programming/late-breaking-science), so you need to know that REC 994 is recursion's drug.

3. I'm regarded.

[I put 6k down on this and look forward to losing it.](https://preview.redd.it/z9h80vtop5he1.png?width=2032&format=png&auto=webp&s=9c2b4e7634cfeb987c63a5138c7c0844339b0828)