I ranked 25 companies by 30-year durability and current valuation. Intuit and RELX stand out most to me.
I normally keep my valuation work and 30-year rankings separate.
One asks what looks mispriced over the next 3–5 years. The other asks which businesses I would actually be comfortable underwriting over something like 30 years.
The reason Intuit and RELX stand out is that they are the only two names in my current universe where I have both B+ long-term durability and a Strong valuation-dislocation signal.
With Intuit, the main debate for me is whether AI and eventually a better/free IRS alternative really weaken the moat enough to justify the current valuation. I think simple tax filing is vulnerable, but the broader ecosystem around tax, accounting, payroll, payments and financial data is harder to replace.
With RELX, I think the market may be underestimating how embedded its data, workflows and decision tools are. AI can change the interface, but it does not automatically remove the underlying proprietary data and workflow position.
Here is the full matrix:
|30-year durability ↓|Strong dislocation|Probable dislocation|Conditional dislocation|No current dislocation|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|A+|—|—|—|Microsoft|
|A|—|S&P Global|Alphabet|—|
|B+|Intuit, RELX|Experian, Meta Platforms|Amazon|Intuitive Surgical, Mastercard|
|B|—|Autodesk|Constellation Software, NVIDIA, Broadcom, TSMC|ASML, Schneider Electric, Synopsys, TransDigm|
A+ is my highest-confidence durability tier. A means an elite business with one meaningful long-term vulnerability. B+ is a very strong compounder with somewhat more uncertainty. B is still high quality, but with a more material long-term limitation.
I leave C-tier names out of the matrix. They can still be attractive investments; I just do not have enough confidence in them as 30-year compounders.
Experian and Meta are the next group for me: B+ durability with a Probable dislocation.
Microsoft is the opposite case. It is my only A+ business, but I see no current valuation dislocation.
Tencent is almost the reverse. I still have it as a Strong dislocation, but it is C on 30-year durability, so it does not make the matrix.
I am also probably more conservative than most people on semiconductors. NVIDIA, Broadcom, TSMC and ASML are all only B for me over 30 years. Their positions today are extremely strong, but 30 years is a long time to extrapolate a technological bottleneck.
The matrix mainly forces me not to confuse a great business with a great stock at today’s price.
If I had to pick where the two sides currently line up best, it is Intuit and RELX.
Which placement would you change first?
I update the valuation side monthly and keep every previous ranking on record, while the 30-year tiers move much more slowly.
I keep the full universe, methodology and ranking history here:
[https://michaelhillaert1.substack.com/p/30-year-durability-valuation-dislocation?r=6vawcp](https://michaelhillaert1.substack.com/p/30-year-durability-valuation-dislocation?r=6vawcp)
