**TLDR**
The recent cloning of the CreativeCloud suite with the ArtCraft clone is going to be the nail in the coffin for Adobe, whether they sue or not. Personally buying Puts
**Adobe's Value Proposition**
Adobe's revenue is critically hinged on it's subscription sales (75% of their revenue, see below). It protects this with dug-in users who aren't willing to pick up new software and have set workflows. This is why previous solutions such as DiVinci Resolve didn't completely displace users of PremierePro. Additionally, Adobe's proprietary file types lock in users across the media development profession for consistent workflow practices.
**Why Adobe loses to ArtCraft**
Other open-source clones didn't have the resources to compete with Adobe and their software development scale, nor did they want to risk getting sued while developing their product by directly mimicking Adobe's features and interfaces, which would actually allow a product to attract embedded users who don't want to learn new software and would rather focus on creating.
ArtCraft is different because it directly mimics existing Adobe interfaces (insanely easy for existing users to switch), it provides extra utility in supporting more operating systems and being written in Rust for performance, the software is quickly advancing to reach feature parity and bug fixing (it has received 17 patches in the last hour as of writing this), and finally this software is fully motivated to fully integrate with AI MCP skillsets that allow AI to fully drive the use of the software with creative tuning. The final stake in the coffin is that many people feel hurt by Adobe's expensive and untenable pricing, so there are many people highly motivated to make this a reality.
Even if Adobe sues the creator and somehow gets the code taken down, it has been duplicated multiple times already and has spread like wildfire. Adobe's legal team will not be able to keep up with how fast a new Hydra head will pop up and the US legal system doesn't have precedent to actually protect a digital entity like this.
Major companies will continue to use CreativeCloud to not expose themselves to the legal blast radius, but most small companies, individual creatives, and hobbyists have the opportunity to quickly switch. There are more and more videos popping up by the hour on YouTube about top creatives testing the software and confirming that while it is buggy currently it is highly effective as a replacement and allows them to continue doing their existing workflows without disruption. This smaller creatives section is \~25% of their primary revenue stream or about \~17% of their total profit. If Adobe loses any major firms to this, the blast radius is even wider.
**Adobe Financials**
FY2025 Revenue Breakdown by Segment
* **Digital Media** ($17.65 billion | **74.25%** share): Includes subscriptions to Creative Cloud (Photoshop, Illustrator, Premiere Pro) and Document Cloud (Acrobat, Adobe Sign). \[[1](https://www.trefis.com/data/companies/ADBE/no-login-required/IUXXpyZJ/Adobe-Revenues-How-Does-ADBE-Make-Money-), [2](https://bullfincher.io/companies/adobe/revenue-by-segment)\]
* **Digital Experience** ($5.86 billion | **24.67%** share): Includes enterprise subscriptions to Adobe Experience Cloud for marketing analytics, commerce, and campaign management. \[[1](https://bullfincher.io/companies/adobe/revenue-by-segment), [2](https://www.trefis.com/data/companies/ADBE/no-login-required/IUXXpyZJ/Adobe-Revenues-How-Does-ADBE-Make-Money-)\]
* **Print and Publishing** ($256 million | **1.08%** share): Includes legacy product licenses for technical publishing and eLearning tools. \[[1](https://bullfincher.io/companies/adobe/revenue-by-segment), [2](https://www.trefis.com/data/companies/ADBE/no-login-required/IUXXpyZJ/Adobe-Revenues-How-Does-ADBE-Make-Money-)\]
**Customer Group,** **FY2025 Revenue,** **Revenue Share**
Creative & Marketing Professionals, $16.30 billion, 71.5%
Business Professionals & Consumers, $6.50 billion, 28.5%
**Personal Stake**
I have bought 10 Puts for 10/30 at a strike of $235. I started buying yesterday and got hammered by their gains the last two days. I personally believe they will take a big hit over the weekend as this software moves at a blazing pace and gets more Youtuber and internet attention over the weekend, with a big move starting Monday when Adobe investors start getting scared because of what they see, and the impending SaaSpocolypse fear renewals.
