Last year I [posted this chart](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1ozhku2/four_year_cycle_update_predicting_the_bottom/), predicting BTC would be under $40,000 today, so I thought it would be fair to post an update.
|Inflection|Date|Days|Price|Return|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
||
|High|11/30/13||1,127||
|Low|1/14/15|410|172|\-85%|
|High|12/16/17|1,067|19,665|\+11,324%|
|Low|12/17/18|366|3,217|\-84%|
|High|11/9/21|1,058|67,617|\+2,002%|
|Low|11/10/22|366|15,742|\-77%|
|High|10/7/25|1,062|124,774|\+693%|
|Low|*10/8/26?*|*366?*|*37,400?*|*-70%?*|
Obviously I and all the other four year cyclers were wrong, and BTC is now more than double my prediction. I never believed in the halvening as some kind of structural driver, but I did think the cycle was a self fulfilling prophecy.
Since this cycle was so different on the downside, I'd be very careful assuming a 3 year bull market is in the cards or that Bitcoin is destined to make another inflation adjusted all time high. I think the reasonable range of outcomes is now wider than ever, and the days of it being a bet with asymmetric upside are over.