I have had my Crypto trading system live for almost three months now. What did I learn?
At the moment my super solid 1.800x back tested strategy is performing almost on spot as just holding BTC. A main reason for this is that BTC usually moves the rest of the market. However there have been periods where my trading bot has been 5-10% above BTC in overall return over the period. One key here is that BTC is a first mover often when the bull market changes. The others follow hard in later periods of the market. (and are we even in a bull market yet?)
Can you beat a buy and hold strategy? That is my optimal - and my opinion ii is possible with a few simple rules. You need a set of rules to follow and be consistent. I have made this website (for free) to showcase that you easily can beat the market overall if you allow yourself for a couple of a tools. Hereby a few tips from my side when trading the Crypto market.
1) You need to know what **Regime** you're in. Are we in a bear/bull or sideways? For this I use a HMM model to define Risk on / off.
2) You need to have clear rules on **what you trade** and why. My rule is top 15 with good liquidity. The more you include the higher the variance you accept. I think everything below top 25 in Crypto is moonshots and if you bet on 10 different in top 100. You'll be better off just buying top 15. My research has also proved this - random walk - survivorship free. In the past 3 years I 10x my investment vs 3x from BTC. If I picked top 100 I could do 25x but at a drawdown of 4x. So the risk is simply too high and can only be mitigated by hard diversification pushing it down to around 12x.
3) Rebalance and adjust to the market. It's important to not stick around in losers and hope for a turn around. Stuff usually goes against the market for a reason - and it usually follow through.
4) **Don't expect the Crypto market to move as the stock market**. Correlation is a lot higher in Crypto compared to the stock market. You don't have a seperation between sectors yet - everything moves up - everything moves down. (more or less)
These recommendations are based on backtesting and studying the Crypto market since birth.
My 2 cents on the Crypto market. Enjoy or destroy :)
[https://koryu.io/](https://koryu.io/)
