Cava - how much moat is there for healthy fast casual restaurant?

The collapse in Sweetgreen's performance makes me question how much moat or entry barrier really exists in healthy fast casual restaurant. CAVA is doing much better today, but I don't know yet whether that reflects a durable competitive advantage or simply an earlier stage of growth (only 500 restaurants nationwide) I am staying on the sidelines and watching whether CAVA can maintain \~$3M AUV and \~25% restaurant-level margins as it moves from 500 toward 1,000 restaurants. I am writing this investment memo because my family’s favorite go to fast casual is CAVA.

My math is

\- investment per restaurant $1.3m (IPO prospectus, which may be outdated)

\- AUV (average gross sales per a single restaurant): $3.1m

\- sales per restaurant per day: $8,500 per restaurant per day or about $565 orders assuming $15 average order

\- restaurant level margin 25.7%, \~$800,000 of annualized restaurant level profit, compared to $1.3m investment, this implies payback is less than two years. very attractive.

\- Cava plans to reach 1,000 restaurant by 2032. if they can maintain AUV of $3.1m, 1,000 restaurants is $3.1bn sales and EPS of \~$2.25/shr vs. \~$0.55/shr today.

\- today stock is at $50/shr or 22x P/E assuming 1,000 restaurants. not so cheap. what was world assuming when stock price was $150?!!!!!