I believe this is a potential value play. I think the stock is at least fairly valued if not underpriced. Any way you look at it, they are selling at fair to great price. Without sharing too much detail (you can run analysis along each of these bullet points):
* Even if you completely exclude China, it is still attractive price. This is a bit tricky because Chinese joint ventures are not in gross sales but instead in equity accounted, but it's doable.
* I don't see VW losing in the EU market. They have fantastic product base, period. If you drive cars then you know.
* Healthy debt (cca 67% fixed, 33% floating) and hedging, I don't see them being impacted because of rising rates. Financing arm will just push rates onto consumers. Maturity wall looks okay.
* Mkt cap is aroudn €36 bn and VW is sitting on €34.5bn net liquidity. They do €320bn in sales (mkt cap is just cca 11% of gross sales).
It seems to me that price signals that market lost confidence in VW. It's pricing in a very pessimistic scenario. Fundamentals tell a much more positive story.