$TTAN (ServiceTitan) Speedrunning the Grave - From A Roofer’s Perspective
**TL;DR:** ServiceTitan's biggest customers are PE-backed contractors getting squeezed by rates. The software costs $50k+ a year, and it can't even produce a line-item estimate for insurance work. The president dumped $11.6M of stock in August. The CRO got replaced and the chief business officer walked. Four law firms are investigating them for securities fraud. I'm short. Literally and figuratively.
Positions: 8x TTAN Jan 2027 $40P (Pic in comments)
1. I know these customers. They're in trouble.
ServiceTitan sells to HVAC, plumbing, electrical, and roofing shops. The accounts that actually move their numbers are the big PE-backed rollups running 50+ trucks. Those rollups were built on cheap debt which isn’t cheap anymore, so the machine has stalled. No cheap debt means no new shops bought, no new techs hired, no financing growth. When the rollup stalls, net retention stalls with it, which is the main metric this stock trades on.
2. The product hides the details (which absolutely matter), and can't quote a roof reliably to match insurance.
No published pricing. Real world costs run $250 to $500 per tech per month. A 10-tech shop is looking at $50k to $70k+ in year one once you stack the mandatory onboarding and the Pro modules they pretty much force you into. Contracts run two to three years with early termination fees up to 100% of what's left. There are BBB complaints from contractors who paid for a full year while still waiting to finish onboarding.
If you know home improvement, here's the killer: The estimates it spits out aren't even line-item? A homeowner gets a price, not a scope. No line items means you can't reconcile it against an adjuster's Xactimate estimate, which is line-item by definition. For any roofer doing insurance work, that literally is the job. A year ago, ServiceTitan announced a partnership with Verisk to bolt Xactimate integration onto the platform. Even that press release was framed as "exploring ways" to make it work. A year later, is it the integration in the room with us? Nope…
3. Their new platform is a disaster and they basically said so out loud.
On the 9/8 earnings call, they disclosed a $2-3M revenue headwind from "timing differences" in revenue recognition between core and upsell products. Then they admitted the new Max platform needs so much change management that they "typically do not bill for the first quarter" of a contract. Think about what that means. Customers can't get it working, so the company can't charge for it. Stock dropped 30% on the news.
4. The president sold $11.6 million in August.
Vahe Kuzoyan, President and co-founder on August 11: 114,732 shares at $88.84. $10.2 million in one day. August 12: another 16,388 shares, another $1.5 million. September 17: 3,148 more at $57.07, which left him holding exactly 2 shares. Two. The president of the company owns two shares of the company.
5. The C-suite is walking out.
Same earnings call that killed the stock: Rikus Pretorius in as chief revenue officer, Ross Biestman out. And about two months back, chief business officer Connor Theilmann posted his goodbye on LinkedIn. Revenue chief gets swapped and business chief walks within weeks of each other, they caught the last chopper out of ‘Nam.
6. Four law firms are circling.
Pomerantz, Hagens Berman, Bleichmar Fonti, & Glancy Prongay all announced securities fraud investigations after the drop. Hagens Berman is specifically asking whether management was "sufficiently transparent" about the upsell problems and the revenue timing games. Sure, these firms file after every selloff. Four of them at once, with that specific allegation, is not nothing.
Not financial advice. I sell roofs, I probably qualify to wear a helmet just in case, lmao.