Why Forgent Power Solutions, Inc. (FPS) might be at awesome spot right now
Let's start with PROS =>
**Who they are:** They engage in the design and manufacture of electrical distribution equipment used in data centers, the power grid, and energy-intensive industrial facilities.
That means they are ***solving*** the straight-up ***bottleneck of power distribution*** between power production and consumption for ever-growing AI data centers and the demand for it.
**Why they are better than their peers:**
* They are already profitable, EPS 0.30 with a bit scary forward PPE at 129
* Exceptional growth => FY26 revenue +89%, Q4 revenue +94%, adjusted EBITDA +91% for the year.
* Very strong FY27 guide at $2.4–2.6B revenue and $575–625M adjusted EBITDA, implying roughly 76% and 86% growth at the midpoints
* They recently reported a backlog worth 3 billion, with their market cap at 12B. Backlog worth 1/4 of the whole company is very good BUT BUT it's not guaranteed, they need to perform good at execution\\manufacturing to actually secure it. And I think they will because...
**Leadership:** In short, it looks very good, with a slight bad spot on the COO who worked at Vertiv during 2021-2022, and it went through quite a struggle with pain points the guy should've covered. Other than that, the stack is very solid. And if we presume he learned from that experience one can dare call it elite.
Now, **why this may NOT WORK**
* A lot is now expected. After the post-earnings rerating, future quarters need to confirm that FY27 guidance is not a fever dream.
* Sponsor overhang/governance: Neos Partners, as a major investor still controls about 37.2% of voting power, giving it considerable influence. If they vote on something retarded FPS is bound to comply.
* We still need to worry about raw materials as steel, copper and imported components can pressure margins.
* The initial run after earnings already happened, and the stock gained 20+%. So we are not betting on momentum but actual continuous growth and execution.
So, I welcome anyone who cares to take a look at it and say if they agree with what I see. I already committed to it with a huge pos at 38.80. Aiming for around a 6-month investment timeframe, longer if performance holds up.