Micron reports its fiscal fourth quarter after the close today, and before it does I wanted to check one thing: how its actual revenue compared with the range management itself gave three months earlier.
So I had Claude Code pull every Micron earnings release since June 2023, read the outlook table in each one, and line up the guided revenue against what came in the following quarter. That gives 12 pairs, and revenue came in above the midpoint of the guide in every single one of them.
For most of that run the beats were small, somewhere between 1% and 10%, which is roughly what you would expect from a management team that guides a little on the safe side. Then the last two quarters broke the pattern: $23.9 billion against an $18.7 billion guide, and $41.5 billion against $33.5 billion, so beats of 28% and 24%.
Tonight the guide is $50 billion, plus or minus $1 billion, at about 86% gross margin.
The thing I keep going back and forth on is this. When a company is beating its own guide by a quarter two times in a row, is the guide still telling you much, or has the market simply learned to add 20% to it?
And for a memory business, which is about as cyclical as it gets, does a streak like this make you more comfortable holding it or less?
Curious how people here read it, especially anyone who has owned Micron through a full cycle.
Micron financials: [https://greeksoup.ai/stocks/us/mu/](https://greeksoup.ai/stocks/us/mu/)
