Full disclaimer - I sold my position at $12.10 and have rebought at an average of $9.90
Why I sold? I made a decent profit and the theory I was tracking was no longer in play. The monster jackpot quarter didn't happen, but it was still strong.
Powerball was won at $1bn
Mega Millions was won at $800m
Super enalotto was won at its second highest jackpot.
What does Q3 look like now we have all of the data?
Q2 jackpot environment was completely in the build stage with zero American frenzy sales and yet the company posted better than expected results.
Q3 has 3 major jackpot influences, but the main drawback will be the comparison to Q3 of 2025 where the Powerball reached a truly monster $1.8bn jackpot anomaly and comparatively will look weaker on paper as a decrease in US jackpot sales.
Q3 has had a better jackpot environment than Q2 and should translate into higher revenue, but still maybe only just keeping the company on track for their full year guidance. It is going to be really tight and I won't be surprised if they revise it down slightly (unless the current jackpot environment of mega millions and Powerball both rally deep into Q3)
The company increased company savings and also reduced number of shares with their ongoing buyback, which again should improve the current expected EPS.
What is key for the next update in October will be how the Brazil expansion is going and what kind of revenue/costs that the online development is having.
What effect did the world cup have on wagers. Has the strong growth of their online presence into Q3 continued?
How big an impact will the refinance of the debt burden impact on the balance sheet. Will the dividend be reaffirmed again (over 9% yield at these levels)
At under $10 a share I'm confident to buy back in, leaving room to average down for now. I believe 2027 will be a great year.