What Would OpenAI and Anthropic Be Worth If They Actually Traded Every Day?

If OpenAI and Anthropic were publicly traded, their stocks might have just gotten crushed.

That's the risk with investing in highly valued private AI companies. OpenAI and Anthropic have reached enormous valuations, but because their shares don't trade every day, investors don't see how dramatically those valuations might move when the narrative changes. Meta's recent Muse success is a good example of how quickly sentiment can shift around AI companies.

SoftBank gives us a window into this. Over the weekend, Dario Amodei called on AI labs to slow frontier development, Sam Altman agreed, and Altman confirmed OpenAI will not go public in 2026. SoftBank, a major OpenAI investor and strategic partner with roughly $64.6 billion committed, fell more than 10% in Tokyo this morning.

Imagine how OpenAI itself might have traded. And why should Anthropic be any different? Both companies are priced for extraordinary future growth. Being private hides the daily volatility. It does not eliminate it.

Investors may be better positioned gaining access to promising private companies before they reach enormous valuations. Kalshi, for example, recently raised at about $22 billion and was subsequently reported to be discussing a valuation as high as $40 billion.

There are no guarantees those gains continue. But at valuations like OpenAI's and Anthropic's, enormous future success is already priced in, and even a small hiccup can mean serious downside.

A great company can still be a terrible investment at the wrong price.