Good day my highly regarded special friends,
Hope you are ready for more Scizo DD.
In my last post below I had several messages and request to follow up on my trade as it moves forward. Because it has gone somewhat well so far I will be creating today’s post in a bit more serious tone. For now I plan to continue to hold my WEAT calls into 2027. Perhaps I should have taken profit when I was up 100% but I am in this for the long haul.
In my last post from 8.19.2026 you can see I announced I was going long WEAT at point 1 in the chart below:
Previous post>
[https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1vt3tbe/fuck\_your\_crops\_going\_long\_on\_weat\_into\_2027/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1vt3tbe/fuck_your_crops_going_long_on_weat_into_2027/)
[Marked up Dec contact SRW wheat](https://preview.redd.it/bf4f091xvdrh1.png?width=468&format=png&auto=webp&s=51ac6dfe3040bb6e18227730441dceed1dd10c69)
This image is an a marked up chart of the December SRW Wheat futures contract. The position is several hundred calls of the ETF WEAT which are set to expire in Jan of 2027 at a strike of 30 dollars. This ETF tracks the price of a basket of SRW wheat futures. It is currently around 26 dollars and made it up as high as 28 and some change. I started opening the position in Early June and stopped adding in early august. Between now and my last post the only changes I made was selling about 100 calls and buying back March 2027 calls at the same strike.
Previously I posted my Schizo DD just before the latest leg in the rally. My whole thesis is based around the collision of several large factors. All of which may or may not come to pass.
They are mainly:
Increasing conflict in Ukraine/Russia, Hormuz/Fertilizer & El Niño…
This time I will call out the same factors with a focus on the Russian/Ukraine piece and just add my take on the current market and its behavior. You decided for yourselves if the fundamental conditions I describe are bullish or not.
Ukraine/Russia:
\*for those who are not aware about 30-40% of internationally traded wheat is sourced from the black sea region - so Russia and Ukraine\*
My interpretation of the price action in the market is that people generally do not know how to interpret the current headlines. This is probably due to the way the oil market has acted since the straight closed. (mixed news/confusion/fog of war)
This is due to people not having the full set of details needed to price the situation. In my last post I explained the the conflict is Russia was growing and the market was “asleep” because of 5 years of war. Most thought this was old hat but I will argue below that the market is simply inefficient at pricing risk of things not expected to happen. Please observe point 2 in the above chart.
On 9/4/2026 we got news that steve witkoff and jared kushner would be visiting Russia and Ukraine in succession to try and broker some form of peace between the 2 nations. As a result the market sold off into the weekend as traders did not want to be long going into the meeting which took place 9/5/2026.
[https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-envoys-visit-russia-ukraine-weekend-tass-reports-2026-09-04/](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-envoys-visit-russia-ukraine-weekend-tass-reports-2026-09-04/)
After the meeting took place we saw such headlines painting the meeting in a positive light.
[https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-russia-us-talks-peace-war-witkoff-kushner/](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-russia-us-talks-peace-war-witkoff-kushner/)
both sides had agreed to some form of ceasefire in advance on both Moscow and Kyiv to allow for diplomats to travel to both locations.
However, during the trip of the “Diplomats” Russia struck the Airport near Kyiv which the US reps planned to fly into after meeting in Moscow. So essentially once Putin knew the route would not be changed he attacked Ukraine despite the “ceasefire” which was supposed to allow them safe travel.
[https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/sep/06/us-envoys-jared-kushner-steve-witkoff-arrive-kyiv-talks-on-ending-war](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/sep/06/us-envoys-jared-kushner-steve-witkoff-arrive-kyiv-talks-on-ending-war)
As a result the 2 had to travel to Kyiv by train since their prior planned route was disrupted. You don’t have to read between the lines to see that this is a clear FU\*CK you from Putin.
Following this we see Russia escalate things further by striking a train near one carrying key figures such as Boris Johnson.
[https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-in-security-scare-after-train-hit-by-russian-drone-in-ukraine-13585471](https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-in-security-scare-after-train-hit-by-russian-drone-in-ukraine-13585471)
And afterward we see that Ukraine attempted to disrupt the key Russian elections held just a few days ago by launching its largest ever drone strike:
[https://www.reuters.com/business/londons-marine-insurers-widen-black-sea-high-risk-zone-shipping-attacks-surge-2026-09-18/](https://www.reuters.com/business/londons-marine-insurers-widen-black-sea-high-risk-zone-shipping-attacks-surge-2026-09-18/)
But how bad is the situation really in Russia and what does it mean for wheat prices around the globe? Well in many cases it is worse than the market thinks for several reasons. [Also anyone who wants me to have a TLDR in any of my post is regarded.]
Generally with the US being the home of the largest markets in the world and Wheat being traded in Chichago most of these news articles get interpreted as something isolated or far away. This is because in a geographic sense they are. People don’t analyze this through a lens of real people with real fights to pick with each other. The escalation in Ukraine and the clear buildup of a larger global conflict is ignored. The tit for tat rule of war and conflict escalation is clear here.
Previously in the comments of my last post I mentioned that we would see further pressure on shipping rates in the black sea followed by that area becoming uninsurable.
Thus far the below has occurred:
[https://www.reuters.com/business/londons-marine-insurers-widen-black-sea-high-risk-zone-shipping-attacks-surge-2026-09-18/](https://www.reuters.com/business/londons-marine-insurers-widen-black-sea-high-risk-zone-shipping-attacks-surge-2026-09-18/)
Now we are in a situation where local grain prices in Ukraine and Russia have collapsed to the point where farmers are loosing money on the current crop. This combined with sky high diesel prices creates a major cash flow problem for getting the 2027 winter wheat crop in the ground.
I will now take this argument one step further.
I expect that we will see a conflict between Russia and at least 1 of the Nato member states in an attempt to break up NATO. I expect this to happen in the next 5-6 Months. This will certainly cause a further increase in wheat prices.
Recently Russia has started training exercises with roughly 9,000 troops near the suwalki gap:
[Note - Kaliningrad is part of russia. Belarus is a strong russian ally. ](https://preview.redd.it/c0vd72y3wdrh1.png?width=468&format=png&auto=webp&s=4ef8d54973da5f99a1cc860ebc5a9c81a2555d01)
At 25:17 in this video you will see a open source intel channel cover the reactivation of a soviet era rail line near this area:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EFvdME0QVes&list=LL&index=1&t=4216s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EFvdME0QVes&list=LL&index=1&t=4216s)
This is further confirmed by the below sources:
Drills:
[https://www.euronews.com/2026/09/16/belarus-concentrates-forces-near-border-with-poland-and-lithuania-in-military-drill](https://www.euronews.com/2026/09/16/belarus-concentrates-forces-near-border-with-poland-and-lithuania-in-military-drill)
Rail line:
[https://marketbrief.now/geopolitics/belarus-reactivates-1934-rail-line-to-lithuanian-border-near-suwalki-gap-17c746cd](https://marketbrief.now/geopolitics/belarus-reactivates-1934-rail-line-to-lithuanian-border-near-suwalki-gap-17c746cd)
So how serious is this? There are several things that point toward it being a problem. More so than the 9,000 troop figure indicates.
Firstly - why would Russia even consider this action? Well they essentially have 2 options. Continue to exhaust their resources attacking a Ukraine which is continually suppled from behind the front lines by NATO and ultimately loose the war which has already come to the point where about 50% of their Oil refining capacity is offline and they are importing fuel from Belarus and India.
Or they can attack the problem (from their perspective) which is NATO. Given that our CIA director has recently traveled to Moscow - an event that last came before the initial attack on Ukraine and we are seeing multiple NATO members indicate that they are concerned about an attack it could be very likely.
Poland fears attack:
[https://apnews.com/article/poland-russia-ukraine-nato-baltics-drones-rockets-818fe48227ee28d60fe86d8fe6485f5c](https://apnews.com/article/poland-russia-ukraine-nato-baltics-drones-rockets-818fe48227ee28d60fe86d8fe6485f5c)
Germany closes Russian Consulate:
[https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-closes-german-consulate-st-petersburg-after-drone-spat-2026-09-07/](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-closes-german-consulate-st-petersburg-after-drone-spat-2026-09-07/)
Lithuania votes to allow Nuclear weapons in their territory:
[https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/lithuanian-parliament-backs-move-to-remove-ban-on-weapons-of-mass-destruction/4064529](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/lithuanian-parliament-backs-move-to-remove-ban-on-weapons-of-mass-destruction/4064529)
As all that takes place we need to take note of the fact that roughly 5000 NATO troops are currently near the suwalki gap. Normally in Military operations it is considered that a 3 to 1 troop advantage is sufficient to win a conflict and a 5 to 1 troop advantage is nearly a sure thing. As a result Russia would only need to move about 6000 additional troops into that area to be at the bottom end of that threshold. This fact in combination with the reactivation of the old rail line along with recent drills simulating the effort to attack this specific area indicate that this is a major problem.
If the conflict does in fact grow I expect that we will also see Ukraine striking the Baltic and norther Ports across Russia as well as continuing efforts in the black sea. This is unfortunate because as some of the grain is being re routed out of russia to the northern ports we must also remember that these are the ports which support most of Russian Fertilizer exports. With the major application of Fertilizer on Wheat being in the spring we could see very high prices by spring of 2027 if this takes place while Hormuz remains closed if more fertilizer does not come out of China.
Furthermore as we continue to see oil prices rise due to the conflict in the middle east I expect the market will experience a sort of “delayed fuse” effect in the energy and agriculture sector which has resulted from the ongoing efforts to dampen the effects of the war in the middle east. (which will likely pick back up after the midterms) Thus I have point 3 in my above price chart which is the latest strike by the houthis on the critical East - West oil pipeline.
For Wheat I do not expect the price to rise much higher until we see India pull back on sales, the continuation of the Russian conflict I describe above or Renewed conflict in the mid east and nations stockpiling as a result.
Based on the reaction to this post I will further provide updates on my trade, explain why Russian/NATO/Mid east conflict will continue to push wheat higher or the motivations I suspect on each of these countries parts that are driving this conflict and thus the overall trade. If all 3 factors continues to push (Ukraine/Russia, Hormuz/Fertilizer & El Niño) I think we could see as high as 9 to 10 dollar per Bushel of SRW wheat in 2027.