Blind valuation challenge: a ~$15B US retailer. 5 numbers, no name. What's your verdict?

Judge a company only on its numbers, with no name or story to bias you. The point is to see if knowing the name would change your mind.

A \~$15B US retailer. Data as of Oct 7, 2026:

1. **Earnings yield: 6.1%**. Profits are 6.1% of the share price per year (10y Treasury \~4–5%; industry median 5.1%).
2. **Return on capital: 109%.** It earns $109 of operating profit for every $100 of working capital + fixed assets it uses (industry median 39%).
3. **Acquirer's Multiple: 29.0x.** Enterprise value / operating earnings, lower = cheaper. Two large US retail peers trade at 10.0x and 13.3x.
4. **FS-Score: 7/10.** Gray & Carlisle's 10-point version of the Piotroski F-Score.
* Profitability 3/3
* Operating improvements 3/4
* Balance sheet stability 1/3: the share count rose \~39% in a year.
5. **DCF: fair value \~60% below today's price.** Assumes 0% growth for 10 years, 3% terminal growth, 15% discount rate. Revenue fell 5.1% last year and 6.5%/yr over 5 years, but free cash flow went from -$239M to $130M to $597M in the last three years. Cash $4.9B, debt $4.2B.

Your turn: give each number a 🟢 🟡 or 🔴, then an overall verdict: buy, watchlist or pass. Bonus points if you guess the company.

Can't wait for the reveal? Vote on the same 5 numbers here and you'll see who it is, how Stocky (my valuation bot) called it and how everyone else voted: [https://www.investorexplorer.com/mystery/1](https://www.investorexplorer.com/mystery/1) (it's my own free tool).

Rather stay on Reddit? I'll post the answer here tomorrow. Either way, come back and tell me if knowing the name changed your verdict.

NOTE: by design, the model only counts cash and debt from the balance sheet, not other investments. This company holds \~$5.2B of them (mostly listed shares and securities). Counting them, fair value is roughly 25–40% below today's price instead of 60%, and the multiple is \~18x instead of 29x (peers 10–13x). Would you count them? Your call.