Late night check on Micron.
MU closed Monday at $1,053.98, down 2.61% from Friday's $1,082.28. Range was $1,032 to $1,084.81. Volume was 22M – below average. After-hours held near $1,055.
Overnight now showing around $1,062.99, up about 0.85% – a small bounce after the fade.
Here's the GEX setup (now using next month's expiry, since the Sept 28 contracts rolled off):
Put Wall $1,000, Call Wall $1,100, gamma flip around $953. Monday's close at $1,054 is sitting above the gamma flip and above the Put Wall, but still below the Call Wall – positive gamma, with $1,100 as the overhead target.
Technically, we're still above the middle Bollinger band ($1,000) but below the upper band ($1,111). RSI in the mid 50s. MACD positive but flattening.
Monday's fade wasn't a company miss. OpenAI said it would pause some model training while it looks at agent behavior. Memory names sold first because training + inference + agents eat DRAM/HBM. Broader yields didn't help semis either.
The Street didn't blink – beat-and-raise is still the base case on tight DRAM/NAND, HBM tightness into 2027-28, and pricing power. That's the split: headline risk this week vs. a supply cycle that still looks tight.
Fiscal Q4 earnings land after the close Wednesday. Street talk is huge – FQ4 revenue around $51B, FQ1 around $57B. Average targets near $1,500, with Baird at $1,520, JPMorgan at $1,540.
Short-term, $1,030-1,032 is first support from Monday's low. Lose $1,000 and the mid-September base gets tested. $1,100 is the Call Wall overhead. $1,255 is the June high – a destination if the FQ1 guide holds.
I'm not adding size into the print at $1,054 after a 5x-plus year. Watching whether $1,030 holds into Wednesday.
What's your plan – holding through the print, taking some off near $1,100, or waiting for $1,000?
DYOD🫡