|Release|Actual|Forecast|Prior|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|Nonfarm payrolls|29K|89K|133K|
|Unemployment rate|4.2%|4.1%|4.1%|
|Avg hourly earnings (month)|0.1%|0.3%|0.3%|
|Private payrolls|46K|85K|89K|
|Avg hourly earnings (year)|3.0%|3.2%|3.1%|
**What it means for the economy**
Hiring is cooling fast. Job growth is under a third of what was expected, unemployment is edging up, and the private sector (46K) is weak too, so this isn't just government hiring. The earnings miss matters as well. Slower wage growth means less spending power for households, which is already a worry given rising inflation. Revisions also removed 60,000 jobs from earlier months, so the trend is weaker than it looked a month ago. The one caution is that September data is noisy because of seasonal quirks in government education hiring, so one month isn't a verdict. Another weak month would be.
**What it means for stocks**
I couldn't find a report on today's market reaction yet, so check live futures and yields. Based on the setup:
* **The upside case:** Weak jobs and cooler wages take pressure off the Fed. Wall Street has been expecting more rate hikes, so a soft report can pull yields down and help stocks, especially tech and growth names. That's what happened in August, when stocks rose and yields fell after an unexpected job-loss report.
* **The downside case:** If the market starts to fear a real slowdown, the focus shifts to earnings and recession risk, and stocks can sell off despite lower yields.
* **The Fed's problem:** The Fed hiked in September and inflation is still elevated, with a weak job market making the Fed's balancing act harder. Wages rising only 0.1% helps the inflation side, but energy prices are still pushing the other way.
**What decides it:** the next CPI inflation report, and whether the 2-year Treasury yield (which tracks Fed expectations) falls or rises today. If yields fall and stocks rise, the market is reading this as "the Fed can ease off." If both fall, it's reading it as "growth is slowing."