Doug Casey says mining is 2% of the S&P vs 10-12% historically. 6% vs 30% for Energy. The Gap will close… What small caps are people actually in?
Doug Casey recently gave his view and the sector numbers he gave stuck with me:
\- Energy was \~30% of the S&P 500 at the 1980 peak. It's roughly 6% now.
\- Mining has historically run 10-12% of the index. It's about 2%.
\- Good oil stocks yielding 10% in current dividends.
He says he's head over heels long small metals explorers, oil explorers and small producers, and calls the broad market grossly overpriced. He's also bullish uranium and ag commodities. On AI he's the opposite, calls the data centre buildout a super double hyper bubble, though he's a fan of the technology itself.
Which raises the obvious question for this sub. If the thesis is right, the leverage is in the small end, not the majors.
So what's everyone actually holding in these three spaces? Specifically interested in:
\- Junior explorers people have done real work on, not just a ticker
\- Anything on the energy side that isn't already picked over
\- Whether anyone's found a genuine small cap AI play that isn't a shell riding the narrative
I'm long shipping and energy names myself so I'm biased toward that side. More interested in what the mining people here are seeing, since that's where I have the least edge.
Relevant bits if anyone wants them, 43:07 uranium and ag, 43:56 what he's long, 44:33 the energy stat, 45:05 mining at 2%: https://youtu.be/OV7Tnj2hnh0