I've been digging into CPRT after the selloff and I think the market is reading a temporary volume dip and pricing it as something structural. U.S. insurance volume fell 8% last year, but most of that looks like one big insurer shifting volume to IAA plus people skipping claim because premiums got too expensive. Total loss frequency is still near record highs \~23%, and insurance costs are finally coming down, so claims should start to normalize. Its still at \~17.5x trailing earnings, the lowest in a decade. Balance sheet and valuation: About $4.4B of net cash( 18% of market cap), 35% operating margins, a 5% FCF yield, and they just did their first buyback in a decade.
Am I missing anything? Mainly wondering if theres anything else I should be considering here and if IAA's share gains are broader than one customer(Progressive), and whether the ACV deal is a mistake. Curious what thoughts are here.