I recently did a dcf analysis on KPN (AMS:KPN).
They traded at **3.97** Eur on October 5th. My base estimate was **4,57** Eur per share, with a range of 3.44 to 5.51 Eur per share bear and bull case.
My base DCF assumed 2% annual revenue growth, a 24% operating margin, capex at 18% of revenue, 2% terminal growth after year 5 and a 5,04% WACC.
Over 77% of the operating value comes from cash flows after year five.
KPN guided its capital spending of about €1,25 billion in 2026, with an expectation to drop below €1 billion in 2027 as the fibre build winds down.
That potential drop is central to the cash-flow case. It results in 75% of DCF value after year 5, tied to the capex drop. If spending rises, my value is overestimated seriously.
Has anybody here valued telecoms, what level of recurring capex would you feel to be realistic for KPN after the fibre rollout? What would convince you that the reduction is sustainable en realistic ?
KPN capex guidance: [https://ir.kpn.com/results-and-reports/quarterly-results/default.aspx](https://ir.kpn.com/results-and-reports/quarterly-results/default.aspx)