Posts / #POST-251691

SP500 and Dow futures jump as weak payrolls/ higher unemployment rate and Fed rate paused chance faded

Oct 2, 2026 · 12:40

R/STOCKS

↗ https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1wvsrfa/sp500_and_dow_futures_jump_as_weak_payrolls/

Stock futures rose early Friday as traders assessed the release of September’s jobs report.
[S&P 500 futures](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/@SP.1?view=story&accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJSUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCIsImtpZCI6ImZhMDcyZjc1Nzg0NjQyNjE1MDg3YzcxODJjMTAxMzQxZTE4ZjdhM2EifQ.eyJzdWIiOiIxMjY4MDk4OCIsImF1ZCI6WyJjbmJjIl0sImlzX3JlZ2lzdGVyZWRfdXNlciI6InRydWUiLCJzY29wZSI6InVzZXJzOnJlYWRfd3JpdGUiLCJjbGllbnQiOiIyMDQiLCJleHRlcm5hbF9pZCI6IjEyNjgwOTg4IiwiYXBwX2FjY2VzcyI6W10sImNpZCI6IjE3OTAxNzkyMDgwNDMiLCJpYXQiOjE3OTA5NDQ1NzksImV4cCI6MTc5MDk0NDg3OSwiaXNzIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9yZWdpc3Rlcm5nLmNuYmMuY29tL2FwaSJ9.Bq-63CCG6ghKcV0OGOY9V0jIKaJoZf9bFFcOTcH8I2B4q76tvjMtnqkiq2txO0KKedFXrzpR_BY960eCnuODlQRfl4Sffg7hoW8i_WHwUlO6djbIg5zZyzlXOe_VowftpwQ5jvEf1NSHKgw71N68cfoWv5NrxpWzKNlhBAJb2lXmK9dKsbo5YQIh5d5cIvCS09UQzWkn2d28xKnsaA7PuLhAeNmfHWzsND-gTeR7-6SrtiqZWF3IM_kMjdJ9JU4kfLjOSk4NkoH8iaCrkNCJsIRlPsVEFSoDqoL2CZtd0xI651TuC0qP_4YLUWqMQ3kj3A4xMdsGjqxs-de84Wiz_Q) were up 0.8%, while futures tied to [Dow Jones Industrial Average](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/@DJ.1?view=story&accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJSUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCIsImtpZCI6ImZhMDcyZjc1Nzg0NjQyNjE1MDg3YzcxODJjMTAxMzQxZTE4ZjdhM2EifQ.eyJzdWIiOiIxMjY4MDk4OCIsImF1ZCI6WyJjbmJjIl0sImlzX3JlZ2lzdGVyZWRfdXNlciI6InRydWUiLCJzY29wZSI6InVzZXJzOnJlYWRfd3JpdGUiLCJjbGllbnQiOiIyMDQiLCJleHRlcm5hbF9pZCI6IjEyNjgwOTg4IiwiYXBwX2FjY2VzcyI6W10sImNpZCI6IjE3OTAxNzkyMDgwNDMiLCJpYXQiOjE3OTA5NDQ1NzksImV4cCI6MTc5MDk0NDg3OSwiaXNzIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9yZWdpc3Rlcm5nLmNuYmMuY29tL2FwaSJ9.Bq-63CCG6ghKcV0OGOY9V0jIKaJoZf9bFFcOTcH8I2B4q76tvjMtnqkiq2txO0KKedFXrzpR_BY960eCnuODlQRfl4Sffg7hoW8i_WHwUlO6djbIg5zZyzlXOe_VowftpwQ5jvEf1NSHKgw71N68cfoWv5NrxpWzKNlhBAJb2lXmK9dKsbo5YQIh5d5cIvCS09UQzWkn2d28xKnsaA7PuLhAeNmfHWzsND-gTeR7-6SrtiqZWF3IM_kMjdJ9JU4kfLjOSk4NkoH8iaCrkNCJsIRlPsVEFSoDqoL2CZtd0xI651TuC0qP_4YLUWqMQ3kj3A4xMdsGjqxs-de84Wiz_Q) rose 458 points, or 0.9%.[ ](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/@ND.1/?view=story&accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJSUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCIsImtpZCI6ImZhMDcyZjc1Nzg0NjQyNjE1MDg3YzcxODJjMTAxMzQxZTE4ZjdhM2EifQ.eyJzdWIiOiIxMjY4MDk4OCIsImF1ZCI6WyJjbmJjIl0sImlzX3JlZ2lzdGVyZWRfdXNlciI6InRydWUiLCJzY29wZSI6InVzZXJzOnJlYWRfd3JpdGUiLCJjbGllbnQiOiIyMDQiLCJleHRlcm5hbF9pZCI6IjEyNjgwOTg4IiwiYXBwX2FjY2VzcyI6W10sImNpZCI6IjE3OTAxNzkyMDgwNDMiLCJpYXQiOjE3OTA5NDQ1NzksImV4cCI6MTc5MDk0NDg3OSwiaXNzIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9yZWdpc3Rlcm5nLmNuYmMuY29tL2FwaSJ9.Bq-63CCG6ghKcV0OGOY9V0jIKaJoZf9bFFcOTcH8I2B4q76tvjMtnqkiq2txO0KKedFXrzpR_BY960eCnuODlQRfl4Sffg7hoW8i_WHwUlO6djbIg5zZyzlXOe_VowftpwQ5jvEf1NSHKgw71N68cfoWv5NrxpWzKNlhBAJb2lXmK9dKsbo5YQIh5d5cIvCS09UQzWkn2d28xKnsaA7PuLhAeNmfHWzsND-gTeR7-6SrtiqZWF3IM_kMjdJ9JU4kfLjOSk4NkoH8iaCrkNCJsIRlPsVEFSoDqoL2CZtd0xI651TuC0qP_4YLUWqMQ3kj3A4xMdsGjqxs-de84Wiz_Q)[Nasdaq-100 futures](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/@ND.1?view=story&accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJSUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCIsImtpZCI6ImZhMDcyZjc1Nzg0NjQyNjE1MDg3YzcxODJjMTAxMzQxZTE4ZjdhM2EifQ.eyJzdWIiOiIxMjY4MDk4OCIsImF1ZCI6WyJjbmJjIl0sImlzX3JlZ2lzdGVyZWRfdXNlciI6InRydWUiLCJzY29wZSI6InVzZXJzOnJlYWRfd3JpdGUiLCJjbGllbnQiOiIyMDQiLCJleHRlcm5hbF9pZCI6IjEyNjgwOTg4IiwiYXBwX2FjY2VzcyI6W10sImNpZCI6IjE3OTAxNzkyMDgwNDMiLCJpYXQiOjE3OTA5NDQ1NzksImV4cCI6MTc5MDk0NDg3OSwiaXNzIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9yZWdpc3Rlcm5nLmNuYmMuY29tL2FwaSJ9.Bq-63CCG6ghKcV0OGOY9V0jIKaJoZf9bFFcOTcH8I2B4q76tvjMtnqkiq2txO0KKedFXrzpR_BY960eCnuODlQRfl4Sffg7hoW8i_WHwUlO6djbIg5zZyzlXOe_VowftpwQ5jvEf1NSHKgw71N68cfoWv5NrxpWzKNlhBAJb2lXmK9dKsbo5YQIh5d5cIvCS09UQzWkn2d28xKnsaA7PuLhAeNmfHWzsND-gTeR7-6SrtiqZWF3IM_kMjdJ9JU4kfLjOSk4NkoH8iaCrkNCJsIRlPsVEFSoDqoL2CZtd0xI651TuC0qP_4YLUWqMQ3kj3A4xMdsGjqxs-de84Wiz_Q) advanced 1.2%.
Treasury yields were little changed early Friday after trading marginally lower.
September’s [nonfarm payrolls report](https://www.cnbc.com/id/108371134?view=story&accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJSUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCIsImtpZCI6ImZhMDcyZjc1Nzg0NjQyNjE1MDg3YzcxODJjMTAxMzQxZTE4ZjdhM2EifQ.eyJzdWIiOiIxMjY4MDk4OCIsImF1ZCI6WyJjbmJjIl0sImlzX3JlZ2lzdGVyZWRfdXNlciI6InRydWUiLCJzY29wZSI6InVzZXJzOnJlYWRfd3JpdGUiLCJjbGllbnQiOiIyMDQiLCJleHRlcm5hbF9pZCI6IjEyNjgwOTg4IiwiYXBwX2FjY2VzcyI6W10sImNpZCI6IjE3OTAxNzkyMDgwNDMiLCJpYXQiOjE3OTA5NDQ1NzksImV4cCI6MTc5MDk0NDg3OSwiaXNzIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9yZWdpc3Rlcm5nLmNuYmMuY29tL2FwaSJ9.Bq-63CCG6ghKcV0OGOY9V0jIKaJoZf9bFFcOTcH8I2B4q76tvjMtnqkiq2txO0KKedFXrzpR_BY960eCnuODlQRfl4Sffg7hoW8i_WHwUlO6djbIg5zZyzlXOe_VowftpwQ5jvEf1NSHKgw71N68cfoWv5NrxpWzKNlhBAJb2lXmK9dKsbo5YQIh5d5cIvCS09UQzWkn2d28xKnsaA7PuLhAeNmfHWzsND-gTeR7-6SrtiqZWF3IM_kMjdJ9JU4kfLjOSk4NkoH8iaCrkNCJsIRlPsVEFSoDqoL2CZtd0xI651TuC0qP_4YLUWqMQ3kj3A4xMdsGjqxs-de84Wiz_Q) showed U.S. nonfarm payrolls increase by 29,000 in September, less than expected, with unemployment rising to 4.2%. The Dow Jones consensus calling for job growth of 84,000 and for the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.1%.
The report comes as traders reassess the next move for the Federal Reserve. Fed funds futures trading suggests a 72% likelihood the central bank will stand pat in October.

Oil prices [dropped sharply](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/01/stock-market-today-live-updates-.html?$DEVICE$=mobile-native&accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJSUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCIsImtpZCI6ImZhMDcyZjc1Nzg0NjQyNjE1MDg3YzcxODJjMTAxMzQxZTE4ZjdhM2EifQ.eyJzdWIiOiIxMjY4MDk4OCIsImF1ZCI6WyJjbmJjIl0sImlzX3JlZ2lzdGVyZWRfdXNlciI6InRydWUiLCJzY29wZSI6InVzZXJzOnJlYWRfd3JpdGUiLCJjbGllbnQiOiIyMDQiLCJleHRlcm5hbF9pZCI6IjEyNjgwOTg4IiwiYXBwX2FjY2VzcyI6W10sImNpZCI6IjE3OTAxNzkyMDgwNDMiLCJpYXQiOjE3OTA5NDQ1NzksImV4cCI6MTc5MDk0NDg3OSwiaXNzIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9yZWdpc3Rlcm5nLmNuYmMuY29tL2FwaSJ9.Bq-63CCG6ghKcV0OGOY9V0jIKaJoZf9bFFcOTcH8I2B4q76tvjMtnqkiq2txO0KKedFXrzpR_BY960eCnuODlQRfl4Sffg7hoW8i_WHwUlO6djbIg5zZyzlXOe_VowftpwQ5jvEf1NSHKgw71N68cfoWv5NrxpWzKNlhBAJb2lXmK9dKsbo5YQIh5d5cIvCS09UQzWkn2d28xKnsaA7PuLhAeNmfHWzsND-gTeR7-6SrtiqZWF3IM_kMjdJ9JU4kfLjOSk4NkoH8iaCrkNCJsIRlPsVEFSoDqoL2CZtd0xI651TuC0qP_4YLUWqMQ3kj3A4xMdsGjqxs-de84Wiz_Q#108371642-llavtYqV2) from their highs, following a report that European nation states are considering a release of strategic fuel reserves. The Trump administration has [pressured](https://www.cnbc.com/id/108371594?view=story&accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJSUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCIsImtpZCI6ImZhMDcyZjc1Nzg0NjQyNjE1MDg3YzcxODJjMTAxMzQxZTE4ZjdhM2EifQ.eyJzdWIiOiIxMjY4MDk4OCIsImF1ZCI6WyJjbmJjIl0sImlzX3JlZ2lzdGVyZWRfdXNlciI6InRydWUiLCJzY29wZSI6InVzZXJzOnJlYWRfd3JpdGUiLCJjbGllbnQiOiIyMDQiLCJleHRlcm5hbF9pZCI6IjEyNjgwOTg4IiwiYXBwX2FjY2VzcyI6W10sImNpZCI6IjE3OTAxNzkyMDgwNDMiLCJpYXQiOjE3OTA5NDQ1NzksImV4cCI6MTc5MDk0NDg3OSwiaXNzIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9yZWdpc3Rlcm5nLmNuYmMuY29tL2FwaSJ9.Bq-63CCG6ghKcV0OGOY9V0jIKaJoZf9bFFcOTcH8I2B4q76tvjMtnqkiq2txO0KKedFXrzpR_BY960eCnuODlQRfl4Sffg7hoW8i_WHwUlO6djbIg5zZyzlXOe_VowftpwQ5jvEf1NSHKgw71N68cfoWv5NrxpWzKNlhBAJb2lXmK9dKsbo5YQIh5d5cIvCS09UQzWkn2d28xKnsaA7PuLhAeNmfHWzsND-gTeR7-6SrtiqZWF3IM_kMjdJ9JU4kfLjOSk4NkoH8iaCrkNCJsIRlPsVEFSoDqoL2CZtd0xI651TuC0qP_4YLUWqMQ3kj3A4xMdsGjqxs-de84Wiz_Q) European allies to “immediately” release supplies.
Front-month [Brent crude oil futures](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/@LCO.1?view=story&accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJSUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCIsImtpZCI6ImZhMDcyZjc1Nzg0NjQyNjE1MDg3YzcxODJjMTAxMzQxZTE4ZjdhM2EifQ.eyJzdWIiOiIxMjY4MDk4OCIsImF1ZCI6WyJjbmJjIl0sImlzX3JlZ2lzdGVyZWRfdXNlciI6InRydWUiLCJzY29wZSI6InVzZXJzOnJlYWRfd3JpdGUiLCJjbGllbnQiOiIyMDQiLCJleHRlcm5hbF9pZCI6IjEyNjgwOTg4IiwiYXBwX2FjY2VzcyI6W10sImNpZCI6IjE3OTAxNzkyMDgwNDMiLCJpYXQiOjE3OTA5NDQ1NzksImV4cCI6MTc5MDk0NDg3OSwiaXNzIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9yZWdpc3Rlcm5nLmNuYmMuY29tL2FwaSJ9.Bq-63CCG6ghKcV0OGOY9V0jIKaJoZf9bFFcOTcH8I2B4q76tvjMtnqkiq2txO0KKedFXrzpR_BY960eCnuODlQRfl4Sffg7hoW8i_WHwUlO6djbIg5zZyzlXOe_VowftpwQ5jvEf1NSHKgw71N68cfoWv5NrxpWzKNlhBAJb2lXmK9dKsbo5YQIh5d5cIvCS09UQzWkn2d28xKnsaA7PuLhAeNmfHWzsND-gTeR7-6SrtiqZWF3IM_kMjdJ9JU4kfLjOSk4NkoH8iaCrkNCJsIRlPsVEFSoDqoL2CZtd0xI651TuC0qP_4YLUWqMQ3kj3A4xMdsGjqxs-de84Wiz_Q) were last seen nearly 3% lower at $99 per barrel. U.S. [West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/@CL.1?view=story&accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJSUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCIsImtpZCI6ImZhMDcyZjc1Nzg0NjQyNjE1MDg3YzcxODJjMTAxMzQxZTE4ZjdhM2EifQ.eyJzdWIiOiIxMjY4MDk4OCIsImF1ZCI6WyJjbmJjIl0sImlzX3JlZ2lzdGVyZWRfdXNlciI6InRydWUiLCJzY29wZSI6InVzZXJzOnJlYWRfd3JpdGUiLCJjbGllbnQiOiIyMDQiLCJleHRlcm5hbF9pZCI6IjEyNjgwOTg4IiwiYXBwX2FjY2VzcyI6W10sImNpZCI6IjE3OTAxNzkyMDgwNDMiLCJpYXQiOjE3OTA5NDQ1NzksImV4cCI6MTc5MDk0NDg3OSwiaXNzIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9yZWdpc3Rlcm5nLmNuYmMuY29tL2FwaSJ9.Bq-63CCG6ghKcV0OGOY9V0jIKaJoZf9bFFcOTcH8I2B4q76tvjMtnqkiq2txO0KKedFXrzpR_BY960eCnuODlQRfl4Sffg7hoW8i_WHwUlO6djbIg5zZyzlXOe_VowftpwQ5jvEf1NSHKgw71N68cfoWv5NrxpWzKNlhBAJb2lXmK9dKsbo5YQIh5d5cIvCS09UQzWkn2d28xKnsaA7PuLhAeNmfHWzsND-gTeR7-6SrtiqZWF3IM_kMjdJ9JU4kfLjOSk4NkoH8iaCrkNCJsIRlPsVEFSoDqoL2CZtd0xI651TuC0qP_4YLUWqMQ3kj3A4xMdsGjqxs-de84Wiz_Q) were down by about 4% to $89 a barrel.