[Combined cost basis: \~$19,600](https://preview.redd.it/jdps5wp9e4th1.png?width=638&format=png&auto=webp&s=4eeb51510b32e1880a22bcc7056b68cc18f2001e)
[Cost Basis: \~$4,500](https://preview.redd.it/l7z1ch4ae4th1.png?width=592&format=png&auto=webp&s=1e787133b456c7c25ccf7b6a0a2b6aa9f971e0fb)
Long Thesis: Flutter is the bookie behind FanDuel, plus several betting sites in the UK, Italy, and Australia. They were originally listed on the London Stock Exchange and were briefly dual listed on the NYSE before fully delisting from LSE causing an unholy amount of forced selling via the passive funds tracking the MSCI EAFE index. As a result of this alongside prediction market fears the stock was down \~67%. Then outta nowhere, the Brazilian government RKO'd em (and the industry) with a ban (not yet made permanent) creating yet another negative headline catalyst and dropping it another \~25% from $100 to $75. After doing the math on that last part though it's a massive overreaction. Even pessimistically the worst impact I can come up with via DCF is about a $5 haircut. Sell side largely agrees with me via the plethora of maintains and marginal revisions. My probability weighted (with a pessimistic skew and conservative assumptions) PT is about $120. Market is effectively assuming the chance of bankruptcy at something like 30% on a max entropy from market price basis and using my scenario prices. All of this combined with relatively low active ownership and short positions sitting on hefty YTD gains could combine for some big green dick rebounding next week as the US quality growth buyside look for shit that isn't AI related to allocate towards. If not I should have some good loss porn for you boys.
Short (bus) Thesis: I'm betting on the house because the house always wins. Also because I'm not a trend chasing pussy like all of you hardware cowards (the only kinda chip I like are the paint kind I eat for lunch).