Here's an automotive bear case I've been thinking about.
The US has effectively removed Chinese automakers from the competitive equation.
BYD, Geely, XPeng and other Chinese manufacturers are expanding internationally, but an American consumer generally can't walk into a dealership and compare one directly with a GM, Ford, Tesla, Hyundai or Toyota.
That obviously protects manufacturers operating in the US market from a brutal price war.
But what if it also creates a long-term competitiveness problem?
I'm Brazilian, and we're watching the opposite experiment.
BYD, GWM and Geely are competing directly with Chevrolet, VW, Fiat, Hyundai, Toyota and others. Affordable Chinese BEVs are putting pressure on conventional hatchbacks and small crossovers, while Chinese hybrids and PHEVs are attacking the SUV market.
Legacy manufacturers are responding with discounts, new pricing and different products.
GM is particularly interesting because Chevrolet has been one of Brazil's dominant brands for generations.
And here's the irony: GM itself has major Chinese joint ventures. Some Chevrolet EVs sold in South America already originate from that Chinese product ecosystem.
So Chinese automotive technology can compete under a Chevrolet badge in markets outside the US while Americans themselves are largely prevented from buying Chinese brands directly.
Protection can preserve margins and market share at home.
But BYD, Geely and the rest don't stop developing cars because they're excluded from America. They keep gaining scale and competing against American manufacturers in Latin America, Europe, Asia and other markets.
So here's the investment question:
Does excluding Chinese automakers give Detroit the time it needs to become more competitive?
Or does removing one of its strongest sources of price competition make US manufacturers more comfortable domestically while their international competitiveness deteriorates?
Because those produce very different long-term outcomes for GM, Ford and Stellantis.