Boxabl (BXBL): five years of building houses, one quarter of shipping them. Why the next two quarters decide the stock.
Everyone agrees housing is too expensive & almost nobody public is selling a cheaper house. Boxabl is. It builds the Casita, a 361 sq ft studio with full kitchen, bathroom & utilities that ships folded on a flatbed & unfolds on site in under an hour. It listed on the Nasdaq July 20 via the FG Merger II SPAC, & I went through the 10-K, the Q1 10-Q & the merger 8-Ks to figure out what you're actually buying at \~$4.10. So let's dive in.
My thesis: Boxabl spent years building a factory & a warehouse full of inventory. Q1 2026 is the first quarter where shipping caught up to building. The share structure gives you roughly two more quarters to watch whether that holds before the supply overhang matters. That's the trade.
**What they built before they sold anything**
Three factories in North Las Vegas, 421,823 sq ft total, 128 employees at year end. Funded by $230M+ raised from 50,000+ retail investors on Reg A. Through March 27 they'd manufactured 795 Casitas & delivered 312. In all of 2025 they delivered 23 units to 15 customers. At Dec 31 there were 175 finished Casitas & another 192 work-in-process sitting in inventory.
That's the bear case in one paragraph, & every short will lead with it. It's also the setup for the bull case, because a company with 367 houses in inventory doesn't need to build a factory to fulfill orders. It needs orders.
**The numbers**
* FY2024: revenue $3.38M, net loss $50.9M
* FY2025: revenue $1.51M, net loss $57.5M
* Q1 2026: revenue $1.56M, net loss $7.58M (vs $10.26M in Q1 2025)
Q1 2026 alone did more revenue than all of 2025. The quarterly loss came down 26% year over year. Backlog as of March 27 was 374 boxes under contract worth $25.7M, roughly 17x last year's total revenue, & the inventory to fill it already exists.
The product line is also wider than it was a year ago: a 120 sq ft Baby Box built to RV code with pre-orders at $19,999, a two-bedroom Casita that got California approval in November, a stackable multi-module system, an emergency-housing unit called Sanctuary, a commercial modular manufacturer license in California as of December, & dealer licenses in process across 14 more states.
Cash was $22.3M at March 31 plus roughly $14M from the SPAC trust at close. Q1 burn was about $6.8M. Call it five quarters of runway, & the 10-K carries going-concern language.
**The share structure, which is the whole reason the timing matters**
353.13M shares outstanding. Float: 9.41M, about 2.7% of the company. The merger handed 350M shares to pre-merger Boxabl holders, & per the July 17 8-K they're locked: 50% releases at six months (Jan 17, 2027) only if the stock closes at $12+ for 20 of any 30 trading days, the remainder at 13 months (Aug 17, 2027) regardless of price.
So founders, insiders & the 50,000 early investors rolled 100% of their equity into the public company & can't sell for 11 months. For that window the stock trades on execution, not on supply. After that window, \~344M shares can hit the tape. Aug 17, 2027 is the deadline by which the ramp has to have proven itself, & the two quarters between now & then are the evidence.
**Valuation, honestly**
At $1.39B on $1.51M of trailing revenue you're paying roughly 900x sales. Nobody should pretend that's a fundamentals multiple. It's a bet that Q1 is the first quarter of a ramp rather than a one-off, & that the $25.7M backlog converts. If it does, trailing revenue is the wrong denominator. If it doesn't, this is a $4 stock with a lockup cliff next August.
**What I'm watching**
1. **Q2 & Q3 operating results.** The Aug 21 10-Q covered the SPAC shell (trust income, an FPA mark), so Boxabl's own Q2 operating numbers haven't appeared in a filing yet. The Q3 10-Q in November is the next confirmed look at whether Q1 was a trend.
2. **A capital raise.** Going-concern language plus \~five quarters of cash makes an offering or ATM plausible, & new shares go straight into the float.
3. **The $12 condition.** If the stock runs, half the locked shares release in January instead of August.
4. **Backlog conversion.** 374 units under contract against 367 in inventory. Deliveries per quarter is the number that matters.
**My take**
The valuation is priced for the ramp & the ramp has exactly one quarter of evidence. That's thin. It's also the first real evidence in five years, it comes with a $25.7M backlog & the inventory to fill it, & the people who own 97% of the company can't sell while it plays out. I'd rather own a company at this stage with insiders locked in than one where they're already heading for the exit. Q3 in November is the checkpoint.
Position: 250 shares @ $4.00
Sources: Boxabl FY2025 10-K, Q1 2026 10-Q, SEC XBRL (Revenues, NetIncomeLoss, Cash), July 17 2026 8-K (lock-up agreement), June 8 2026 8-K (redemptions), merger close press release, Yahoo Finance key statistics as of Sep 14.