Morning check on Nvidia.
NVDA closed at $213.90, up 0.82%. Range was $212.50 to $216.76. Volume was 96M – still below average. Pre-market is firmer around $217, up about 1.5%.
Here's the GEX setup:
Put Wall $210, Call Wall $220, gamma flip around $209. Yesterday's close at $213.90 is sitting above the Put Wall but below the Call Wall – positive gamma, and $220 is the real test.
Technically, we're below the middle Bollinger band ($218.33) and well above the lower band ($205.81). RSI in the mid 40s. MACD still negative but flattening – momentum slowing to the downside.
Now the macro piece – the Fed hiked 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00%. First hike in three years. The Chair's inflation comments knocked the Dow, but NVDA actually finished green. That's relative strength on a tough day, and it's worth noting.
That said, higher-for-longer rates are a headwind for high-multiple tech. The crowded AI trade, custom-silicon competition (Huawei talking new interconnect silicon), and rate pressure all keep a lid on multiple expansion until NVDA can recapture the $220s. The core business hasn't changed – CapEx and AI-factory demand are still the long thesis, Street targets well above here.
Short-term, $212-213 is first support. Lose $210 and the Monday flush zone comes back. $216-217 is the pivot – a hold above opens $220, then $226. I'm not calling $213 a breakout. I'm calling it relative strength versus the Dow on hike day – useful, not decisive.
Need $217 to stick into the open and $220 to confirm the bounce. If this fades back under $212, it's still a range.
What's your plan – holding above $213, adding only on a $210 dip, or waiting for $220?
DYOD🫡